Riding profile

Fabre

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Fabre: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 44.0%

    Marie Claude Fournier

  • PQ 17.8%

    Catherine Dansereau-Redhead

  • PCQ 16.9%

    Stéphane Turmel

  • CAQ 13.5%

    Lucie Létourneau

  • QS 6.3%

    Josée Chevalier

  • Other 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ PCQ CAQ
HereFabre 44.0%17.8%16.9%13.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +20.6 27.9% −10.1 16.1% +0.8 21.3% −7.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Fabre, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 44% vote share, against 18% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alice Abou-Khalil

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Lucie Létourneau

    Lucie Létourneau

    With a professional background in management, strategy and business development, Lucie Létourneau wants to put her experience and energy at the service of Fabre citizens by running with Christine Fréchette's team. She holds an MBA, is PMP-certified in project management and has a graduate diploma in educational technologies. Lucie has solid experience managing projects, mobilizing teams and delivering the value-added initiatives citizens care about. Beyond her professional background and international experience, she wants to bring an approach based on listening, collaboration, rigour, kindness and action, in the service of Fabre citizens.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Stéphane Turmel

    Stéphane Turmel

    Stéphane Turmel is an engineer who has always worked in the high-technology sector. Trained as an electronics developer, he holds a bachelor’s degree in automated production and has been a member of the Ordre des ingénieurs du Québec since 2007. A resident of Sainte-Dorothée for more than 25 years and the father of two young adults, he is deeply rooted in his community. A candidate in Fabre in 2022 and then president of the riding association, Stéphane continues his political commitment with the aim of putting his professional experience at the service of citizens. Particularly concerned about economic issues, he wants to bring a pragmatic and rigorous approach inspired by his engineering career. Quebec 2026 election: Éric Duhaime says, ‘2026 is the year of conservatives.’ He believes his party now represents ‘the hope that things will change in Quebec.’ Published yesterday at 7:33 p.m. ‘I have the feeling that 2026 is the year of conservatives,’ Éric Duhaime declared confidently on the first day of a campaign that polls forecast will be abundant for the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ). However, old controversies resurfaced and marred the launch of a race that, according to projections, should open the doors of the National Assembly to him on October 5. Protective glasses on his face and ‘steel caps’ on his feet, […] Éric Duhaime proposes a 59% tax cut for businesses. 365 Access the Comments section. Open full screen. Éric Duhaime promises to lower business taxes if he becomes Quebec’s premier. A conservative government led by Éric Duhaime would reduce business taxes by 59% during a first mandate. Mr. Duhaime made the announcement Wednesday with several candidates in front of Revenu Québec’s head office in the Capitale-Nationale. Amid a tariff war with the United States, the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) proposes gradually reducing the corporate income-tax rate […] A PQ candidate supports the conservatives’ third-link project. 63 Access the Comments section. Open full screen. Conservative leader Éric Duhaime envisions a second bridge on Île d’Orléans to allow motorists from the South Shore to reach Quebec City. (Archive photo.) The Parti Québécois candidate in Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré, François Gariépy, supports Éric Duhaime’s proposed third highway link, which he hopes would cross Île d’Orléans. ‘This is probably the smartest proposal that has been made,’ Mr. Gariépy said emphatically last month on the radio station’s microphone. […]

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Catherine Dansereau-Redhead

    Catherine Dansereau-Redhead

    Catherine has been a teacher in school adaptation at an elementary school in the Centre de services scolaires de Laval for 12 years. She grew up in Laval and remained deeply attached to this community that saw her grow, where she still works today.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Marie Claude Fournier

    Marie Claude Fournier

    An executive and entrepreneur with more than 20 years of management experience, Marie Claude Fournier is the Executive Director of the Quebec Construction Association—Laval-Laurentides. Her diverse career path has enabled her to develop solid expertise in business development, project management, and strategic communications, combining the worlds of business, entrepreneurship, and law. With a bachelor’s degree in law and a master’s degree in notarial law, she practiced at a law firm, where she gained significant experience in real estate law, construction law, and corporate law. This background has given her an in-depth understanding of the construction industry, regulatory issues, and real estate and business realities. Throughout her career, the QLP candidate in Fabre has founded and led businesses and spearheaded large-scale projects, while also getting involved with community organizations. She is recognized for her unifying leadership, strategic vision, and ability to advance complex issues, as well as for her advocacy skills and her ability to bring together different stakeholders around shared projects. Having previously run for federal office, she has developed a deep understanding of public policy issues. Marie Claude Fournier has decided to enter politics to be part of the change and to put her experience to work for the people. In Fabre, she hopes to address Quebec’s major issues, particularly housing, infrastructure, and public services.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Josée Chevalier

    Josée Chevalier

    An English professor at Collège Montmorency for nearly 25 years, Josée Chevalier advocates labour rights and access to quality education.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
0.9 pts
Turnout
62.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+25.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alice Abou-Khalil Elected CAQ 10,912 31.8
Sonia Baudelot QLP 10,606 30.9
Stéphane Turmel PCQ 5,205 15.2
Jessy Léger QS 3,820 11.1
Catherine Dansereau-Redhead PQ 3,346 9.8
Lynn Buchanan Other 418 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026