Riding profile
Groulx
The question
Groulx: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 64%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 66%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGroulx | 30.3% | 28.1% | 18.9% | 12.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +2.4 | 21.3% +6.8 | 23.4% −4.5 | 16.1% −3.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Groulx, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Eric Girard
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent
Eric Girard
Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Groulx and appointed Minister of Finance, Eric Girard was Treasurer at Banque Nationale. He has over 25 years of experience in the fields of investment and financial markets.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Samuel Beauchamp
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Ariane Desrochers
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Marie-Claude Sarrazin
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Julie Tourangeau
After more than 15 years of professional experience in management, business development, strategic sales, and human resources management in the private sector, Julie Tourangeau made the leap into provincial politics under the Liberal banner. An entrepreneur, she has owned Brasserie Les 2 Richard as well as Plan B Traiteur since 2015. Before going into business, the PLQ candidate in Groulx worked at large companies, notably PepsiCo and Wrigley, where she held various positions in business development. Her background, both as a manager within large companies and as an entrepreneur, has allowed her to develop solid experience in management, business development, and leadership. The restaurant sector, in which she has been active for several years, is present in all regions of Quebec. It is a field that many Quebecers know well, whether from having worked in it or from having frequented establishments like those she runs today. Julie Tourangeau holds a bachelor's degree in career guidance information from the Université de Sherbrooke. She also holds a certificate in human resources management as well as a certificate in leadership and managerial skills. Engaged in her community for several years, she has notably served as president of the Chambre de commerce du cœur des Laurentides. Over the years, she has also been involved with several community organizations, where she has served as a board member on various boards of directors, including that of Sainte-Agathe-des-Arts and the Centre d'accompagnement personnalisé pour jeunes enceintes ou mères (CAP JEM), a non-profit organization located in Sainte-Agathe-des-Monts, which offers transitional housing at a modest price as well as personalized support for low-income pregnant or single-parent young women aged 18 to 35. × I commit to voting for Julie Tourangeau as member for the constituency of Groulx
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Marie-Noëlle Aubertin
Marie-Noëlle Aubertin, a literature professor at Collège Lionel-Groulx, is deeply engaged in her community. Having grown up in the Groulx riding, she knows the realities of her fellow citizens very well. Curious, empathetic and altruistic, she devotes her energy to social justice, the environment and culture. Passionate about education, heritage and feminist and queer issues, she wants to build a greener, more inclusive and more caring community. Marie-Noëlle carries a compassionate vision of the future in which everyone can thrive with respect and dignity.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Girard Elected | CAQ | 17,431 | 47.8 | — |
| Marie-Noëlle Aubertin | QS | 5,919 | 16.2 | — |
| Jeanne Craig-Larouche | PQ | 5,588 | 15.3 | — |
| Audrey Medaino-Tardif | QLP | 4,024 | 11.0 | — |
| Valerie Messore | PCQ | 3,177 | 8.7 | — |
| Victoria Shahsavar-Arshad | Other | 368 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026