Riding profile

Groulx

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Groulx: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Groulx, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Eric Girard

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Eric Girard

    Eric Girard

    Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Groulx and appointed Minister of Finance, Eric Girard was Treasurer at Banque Nationale. He has over 25 years of experience in the fields of investment and financial markets.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
27%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 35.4%
  • CAQ 25.6%
  • PLQ 22.9%
  • PCQ 8.6%
  • QS 6.5%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ PCQ
HereGroulx 35.4%25.6%22.9%8.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +5.4 20.3% +5.3 27.2% −4.3 13.2% −4.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.5 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric Girard Elected CAQ 17,431 47.8 —
Marie-Noëlle Aubertin QS 5,919 16.2 —
Jeanne Craig-Larouche PQ 5,588 15.3 —
Audrey Medaino-Tardif PLQ 4,024 11.0 —
Valerie Messore PCQ 3,177 8.7 —
Victoria Shahsavar-Arshad Other 368 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026