Riding profile

Groulx

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Groulx: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
64%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
66%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 30.3%

    Marie-Claude Sarrazin

  • CAQ 28.1%

    Eric Girard incumbent

  • QLP 18.9%

    Julie Tourangeau

  • PCQ 12.3%

    Ariane Desrochers

  • QS 9.3%

    Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

  • Other 1.0%

    Samuel Beauchamp Climat Québec - Équipe Martine Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereGroulx 30.3%28.1%18.9%12.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +2.4 21.3% +6.8 23.4% −4.5 16.1% −3.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Groulx, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Eric Girard

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Eric Girard

    Eric Girard

    Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Groulx and appointed Minister of Finance, Eric Girard was Treasurer at Banque Nationale. He has over 25 years of experience in the fields of investment and financial markets.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Samuel Beauchamp

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Ariane Desrochers

    Ariane Desrochers

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Marie-Claude Sarrazin

    Marie-Claude Sarrazin

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Julie Tourangeau

    Julie Tourangeau

    After more than 15 years of professional experience in management, business development, strategic sales, and human resources management in the private sector, Julie Tourangeau made the leap into provincial politics under the Liberal banner. An entrepreneur, she has owned Brasserie Les 2 Richard as well as Plan B Traiteur since 2015. Before going into business, the PLQ candidate in Groulx worked at large companies, notably PepsiCo and Wrigley, where she held various positions in business development. Her background, both as a manager within large companies and as an entrepreneur, has allowed her to develop solid experience in management, business development, and leadership. The restaurant sector, in which she has been active for several years, is present in all regions of Quebec. It is a field that many Quebecers know well, whether from having worked in it or from having frequented establishments like those she runs today. Julie Tourangeau holds a bachelor's degree in career guidance information from the Université de Sherbrooke. She also holds a certificate in human resources management as well as a certificate in leadership and managerial skills. Engaged in her community for several years, she has notably served as president of the Chambre de commerce du cœur des Laurentides. Over the years, she has also been involved with several community organizations, where she has served as a board member on various boards of directors, including that of Sainte-Agathe-des-Arts and the Centre d'accompagnement personnalisé pour jeunes enceintes ou mères (CAP JEM), a non-profit organization located in Sainte-Agathe-des-Monts, which offers transitional housing at a modest price as well as personalized support for low-income pregnant or single-parent young women aged 18 to 35. × I commit to voting for Julie Tourangeau as member for the constituency of Groulx

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

    Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

    Marie-Noëlle Aubertin, a literature professor at Collège Lionel-Groulx, is deeply engaged in her community. Having grown up in the Groulx riding, she knows the realities of her fellow citizens very well. Curious, empathetic and altruistic, she devotes her energy to social justice, the environment and culture. Passionate about education, heritage and feminist and queer issues, she wants to build a greener, more inclusive and more caring community. Marie-Noëlle carries a compassionate vision of the future in which everyone can thrive with respect and dignity.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.5 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric Girard Elected CAQ 17,431 47.8
Marie-Noëlle Aubertin QS 5,919 16.2
Jeanne Craig-Larouche PQ 5,588 15.3
Audrey Medaino-Tardif QLP 4,024 11.0
Valerie Messore PCQ 3,177 8.7
Victoria Shahsavar-Arshad Other 368 1.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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