Riding profile

Mirabel

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Mirabel: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
70%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
62%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 31.9%

    Geneviève Couture

  • CAQ 29.2%

    Marjolaine Ferron

  • QLP 15.3%

    Daniela Rodriguez

  • PCQ 14.6%

    Francis Brosseau

  • QS 8.4%

    Marjolaine Goudreau

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereMirabel 31.9%29.2%15.3%14.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +4.1 21.3% +7.9 23.4% −8.1 16.1% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mirabel, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sylvie D'Amours

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Marjolaine Ferron

    Marjolaine Ferron

    A visionary and community-minded businesswoman, Marjolaine Ferron stands out for her deep knowledge of the business world, her communications expertise and her strong ability to mobilize people. A former partner at La Maison Lavande, where she played a key role for more than 10 years, she co-founded the company Grandes Sœurs with her sister Florence in 2025. There, Marjolaine supports entrepreneurs in their strategic and organizational development, particularly in leadership and decision-making, and also contributes to entrepreneurial development by sharing her experience at conferences. She holds a bachelor’s degree in marketing and commercialization from UQAM and now devotes her energy to projects that matter to her. A woman of action and deeply committed mother, she is a co-initiator and volunteer researcher in a pan-Canadian project aimed at improving post-intensive-care services in pediatrics.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Francis Brosseau

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Geneviève Couture

    Geneviève Couture

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Daniela Rodriguez

    Daniela Rodriguez

    A social worker by profession and an engaged mother, Daniela Rodriguez is making the leap into provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. Since the beginning of her career, she has deliberately chosen to work with those who have the least voice: seniors losing their autonomy, adolescents weakened by the system, and healthcare workers whose working conditions are not optimal. It is this intimate, human, and rigorous knowledge of the field that leads her to want to bring these realities to the National Assembly. In November 2025, she first chose to run in the municipal elections in Mirabel, convinced that action is needed at all levels. As a social worker with the SAPA clientele, she supports seniors during some of the most intimate moments of their lives: the fear of losing autonomy, loneliness, and fragility. Alongside seniors and their caregivers, she has measured what the lack of services truly costs in dignity and quality of life: a direct understanding of the challenges related to aging, access to care, and public services. Trained as an educator working with adolescents under the Youth Criminal Justice Act (YCJA), she has been alongside young people whose lives had already taken difficult turns. This work convinced her that prevention and reintegration are not luxuries, but collective necessities. There she developed expertise in psychosocial intervention that now informs her vision of public policy. Beyond her clinical work, Daniela Rodriguez is actively involved in defending the rights of her unionized colleagues at her CISSS, regarding working conditions, professional recognition, and workplace safety. Mindful of the challenges ahead, she has also undertaken studies in cybersecurity. Convinced that Mirabel deserves a voice deeply rooted in the human realities of its population, she is entering the provincial scene determined to act. Safety, infrastructure repair, and improving access to public services form the pillars of her political project. Her values of social justice, transparency, and citizen participation guide each of her commitments. × I commit to voting for Daniela Rodriguez as Member of the National Assembly in the riding of Mirabel

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Marjolaine Goudreau

    Marjolaine Goudreau

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
33.3 pts
Turnout
69.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sylvie D'Amours Elected CAQ 21,639 50.1
Carole Savoie PQ 7,246 16.8
Marjolaine Goudreau QS 6,222 14.4
Gala Durand PCQ 4,936 11.4
Isabella Giosi QLP 2,918 6.8
Pierre Larouche Other 159 0.4
Rémi Lavoie Other 64 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026