Riding profile
Mirabel
The question
Mirabel: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 70%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.5
- P(close race)
- 62%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMirabel | 31.9% | 29.2% | 15.3% | 14.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +4.1 | 21.3% +7.9 | 23.4% −8.1 | 16.1% −1.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mirabel, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sylvie D'Amours
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Marjolaine Ferron
A visionary and community-minded businesswoman, Marjolaine Ferron stands out for her deep knowledge of the business world, her communications expertise and her strong ability to mobilize people. A former partner at La Maison Lavande, where she played a key role for more than 10 years, she co-founded the company Grandes Sœurs with her sister Florence in 2025. There, Marjolaine supports entrepreneurs in their strategic and organizational development, particularly in leadership and decision-making, and also contributes to entrepreneurial development by sharing her experience at conferences. She holds a bachelor’s degree in marketing and commercialization from UQAM and now devotes her energy to projects that matter to her. A woman of action and deeply committed mother, she is a co-initiator and volunteer researcher in a pan-Canadian project aimed at improving post-intensive-care services in pediatrics.
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PCQ Challenger Francis Brosseau
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PQ Challenger
Geneviève Couture
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QLP Challenger
Daniela Rodriguez
A social worker by profession and an engaged mother, Daniela Rodriguez is making the leap into provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. Since the beginning of her career, she has deliberately chosen to work with those who have the least voice: seniors losing their autonomy, adolescents weakened by the system, and healthcare workers whose working conditions are not optimal. It is this intimate, human, and rigorous knowledge of the field that leads her to want to bring these realities to the National Assembly. In November 2025, she first chose to run in the municipal elections in Mirabel, convinced that action is needed at all levels. As a social worker with the SAPA clientele, she supports seniors during some of the most intimate moments of their lives: the fear of losing autonomy, loneliness, and fragility. Alongside seniors and their caregivers, she has measured what the lack of services truly costs in dignity and quality of life: a direct understanding of the challenges related to aging, access to care, and public services. Trained as an educator working with adolescents under the Youth Criminal Justice Act (YCJA), she has been alongside young people whose lives had already taken difficult turns. This work convinced her that prevention and reintegration are not luxuries, but collective necessities. There she developed expertise in psychosocial intervention that now informs her vision of public policy. Beyond her clinical work, Daniela Rodriguez is actively involved in defending the rights of her unionized colleagues at her CISSS, regarding working conditions, professional recognition, and workplace safety. Mindful of the challenges ahead, she has also undertaken studies in cybersecurity. Convinced that Mirabel deserves a voice deeply rooted in the human realities of its population, she is entering the provincial scene determined to act. Safety, infrastructure repair, and improving access to public services form the pillars of her political project. Her values of social justice, transparency, and citizen participation guide each of her commitments. × I commit to voting for Daniela Rodriguez as Member of the National Assembly in the riding of Mirabel
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QS Challenger
Marjolaine Goudreau
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvie D'Amours Elected | CAQ | 21,639 | 50.1 | — |
| Carole Savoie | PQ | 7,246 | 16.8 | — |
| Marjolaine Goudreau | QS | 6,222 | 14.4 | — |
| Gala Durand | PCQ | 4,936 | 11.4 | — |
| Isabella Giosi | QLP | 2,918 | 6.8 | — |
| Pierre Larouche | Other | 159 | 0.4 | — |
| Rémi Lavoie | Other | 64 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026