Riding profile
Vaudreuil
The question
Vaudreuil: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Editorial read
Vaudreuil, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 59% vote share, against 15% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marie-Claude Nichols
Sits with PLQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PLQ Incumbent 
Marie-Claude Nichols
source ↗
Current forecast
PLQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 43.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PQ | PCQ | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVaudreuil | 58.8% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 5.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +31.6 | 30.1% −15.5 | 13.2% −1.1 | 20.3% −14.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Claude Nichols Elected | PLQ | 13,608 | 34.2 | — |
| Eve Bélec | CAQ | 13,032 | 32.8 | — |
| Eve Théoret | PCQ | 4,619 | 11.6 | — |
| Cynthia Bilodeau | QS | 3,671 | 9.2 | — |
| Christopher Massé | PQ | 3,061 | 7.7 | — |
| David Hamelin-Schuilenburg | Other | 726 | 1.8 | — |
| Kelley Boileau | Other | 496 | 1.3 | — |
| Jaspal Singh Ahluwalia | Other | 477 | 1.2 | — |
| Paul Lynes | Other | 75 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026