Riding profile

Vaudreuil

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Vaudreuil: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.4
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 44.3%

    James Hughes

  • CAQ 19.9%

    Chantal Darcy

  • PCQ 16.4%

    Patrick Caron

  • PQ 12.4%

    Meili Faille

  • QS 3.6%

    Jeannette Uwantege

  • Other 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP CAQ PCQ PQ
HereVaudreuil 44.3%19.9%16.4%12.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +20.9 21.3% −1.4 16.1% +0.3 27.9% −15.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vaudreuil, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 44% vote share, against 20% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie-Claude Nichols

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Chantal Darcy

    Chantal Darcy

    Born in Vaudreuil and established in Saint-Lazare for 24 years, Chantal Darcy is an entrepreneur and community leader deeply rooted in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. For more than 20 years, she has devoted herself to families, children, seniors and newcomers. As the founder of La Boîte aux Trésors, she has created and led numerous educational, social and intergenerational projects. Host of the program Fièrement Moi on regional community television, she also gives members of her community a voice so that their journeys and realities can be known. Her unique commitment earned her the Medal of the National Assembly of Quebec in 2024. A field-oriented woman recognized for her ability to listen and bring people together, Chantal proposes to put her boundless energy, creativity and experience at the service of the citizens of Vaudreuil, particularly families, integration and the vitality of her community.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Patrick Caron

    Patrick Caron

    From a family of entrepreneurs in the construction sector, Patrick Caron has developed a good understanding of the challenges facing families, workers and entrepreneurs. His journey has reinforced his conviction that a strong economy relies on initiative, hard work and an environment conducive to business development. Patrick wishes to represent the citizens of Vaudreuil with listening, transparency and pragmatism. He advocates for concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to homeownership, reduce the fiscal and regulatory burden and promote economic development in the region. He believes that responsible state management is essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Meili Faille

    Meili Faille

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    James Hughes

    James Hughes

    Father of three and president and CEO of Mission Old Brewery, James Hughes is entering provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. He holds civil-law and commerce bachelor's degrees from McGill and Queen's universities and a law bachelor's degree from Cambridge. He has remarkable social-services experience, especially in homelessness, and has devoted his career to nonprofits promoting social inclusion and breaking Canada's homelessness cycle. Alongside leading Mission Old Brewery, the PLQ candidate in Vaudreuil sits on Montreal's ad hoc encampments committee, chairs PERT's inaugural board, founded YES Employment + Entrepreneurship and serves on the CHUM board. He was New Brunswick deputy minister of Social Development (2008–2011), helping implement its poverty-reduction strategy; chaired the Graham Boeckh Foundation (2012–2015); and co-founded the Montreal movement to end homelessness. He has authored three books, published in 2015, 2018 and 2024, on homelessness and social programs. His honours include the Goldbloom Award (2014), Queen's University's John Stirling Medal (2019) and the National Assembly of Quebec Medal of Honour (2025).

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Jeannette Uwantege

    Jeannette Uwantege

    Jeannette Uwantege is a committed community manager who has worked for 18 years for families and social justice. Executive director and founder of two community organizations, she has also served on several boards of directors of community and public organizations. In 2024, she mobilized nearly 100 Quebec families by founding the Collectif des parents de la DPJ, carrying their voice and concerns. A Québec solidaire candidate in Vaudreuil, she wants to strengthen trust in institutions, defend the rights of parents and the safety of children, reduce social inequalities, and improve access to care and medication for all families.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
1.4 pts
Turnout
65.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Claude Nichols Elected QLP 13,608 34.2
Eve Bélec CAQ 13,032 32.8
Eve Théoret PCQ 4,619 11.6
Cynthia Bilodeau QS 3,671 9.2
Christopher Massé PQ 3,061 7.7
David Hamelin-Schuilenburg Other 726 1.8
Kelley Boileau Other 496 1.3
Jaspal Singh Ahluwalia Other 477 1.2
Paul Lynes Other 75 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026