Riding profile
Vaudreuil
The question
Vaudreuil: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.4
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | CAQ | PCQ | PQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVaudreuil | 44.3% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 12.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +20.9 | 21.3% −1.4 | 16.1% +0.3 | 27.9% −15.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Vaudreuil, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 44% vote share, against 20% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marie-Claude Nichols
Sits with QLP
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Chantal Darcy
Born in Vaudreuil and established in Saint-Lazare for 24 years, Chantal Darcy is an entrepreneur and community leader deeply rooted in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. For more than 20 years, she has devoted herself to families, children, seniors and newcomers. As the founder of La Boîte aux Trésors, she has created and led numerous educational, social and intergenerational projects. Host of the program Fièrement Moi on regional community television, she also gives members of her community a voice so that their journeys and realities can be known. Her unique commitment earned her the Medal of the National Assembly of Quebec in 2024. A field-oriented woman recognized for her ability to listen and bring people together, Chantal proposes to put her boundless energy, creativity and experience at the service of the citizens of Vaudreuil, particularly families, integration and the vitality of her community.
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PCQ Challenger
Patrick Caron
From a family of entrepreneurs in the construction sector, Patrick Caron has developed a good understanding of the challenges facing families, workers and entrepreneurs. His journey has reinforced his conviction that a strong economy relies on initiative, hard work and an environment conducive to business development. Patrick wishes to represent the citizens of Vaudreuil with listening, transparency and pragmatism. He advocates for concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to homeownership, reduce the fiscal and regulatory burden and promote economic development in the region. He believes that responsible state management is essential to Quebec's prosperity.
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PQ Challenger
Meili Faille
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QLP Challenger
James Hughes
Father of three and president and CEO of Mission Old Brewery, James Hughes is entering provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. He holds civil-law and commerce bachelor's degrees from McGill and Queen's universities and a law bachelor's degree from Cambridge. He has remarkable social-services experience, especially in homelessness, and has devoted his career to nonprofits promoting social inclusion and breaking Canada's homelessness cycle. Alongside leading Mission Old Brewery, the PLQ candidate in Vaudreuil sits on Montreal's ad hoc encampments committee, chairs PERT's inaugural board, founded YES Employment + Entrepreneurship and serves on the CHUM board. He was New Brunswick deputy minister of Social Development (2008–2011), helping implement its poverty-reduction strategy; chaired the Graham Boeckh Foundation (2012–2015); and co-founded the Montreal movement to end homelessness. He has authored three books, published in 2015, 2018 and 2024, on homelessness and social programs. His honours include the Goldbloom Award (2014), Queen's University's John Stirling Medal (2019) and the National Assembly of Quebec Medal of Honour (2025).
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QS Challenger
Jeannette Uwantege
Jeannette Uwantege is a committed community manager who has worked for 18 years for families and social justice. Executive director and founder of two community organizations, she has also served on several boards of directors of community and public organizations. In 2024, she mobilized nearly 100 Quebec families by founding the Collectif des parents de la DPJ, carrying their voice and concerns. A Québec solidaire candidate in Vaudreuil, she wants to strengthen trust in institutions, defend the rights of parents and the safety of children, reduce social inequalities, and improve access to care and medication for all families.
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Claude Nichols Elected | QLP | 13,608 | 34.2 | — |
| Eve Bélec | CAQ | 13,032 | 32.8 | — |
| Eve Théoret | PCQ | 4,619 | 11.6 | — |
| Cynthia Bilodeau | QS | 3,671 | 9.2 | — |
| Christopher Massé | PQ | 3,061 | 7.7 | — |
| David Hamelin-Schuilenburg | Other | 726 | 1.8 | — |
| Kelley Boileau | Other | 496 | 1.3 | — |
| Jaspal Singh Ahluwalia | Other | 477 | 1.2 | — |
| Paul Lynes | Other | 75 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026