Riding profile

Soulanges

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Soulanges: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

QLP

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
43%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 31.2%

    Olivier Bertin-Mahieux

  • CAQ 26.0%

    Marilyne Picard incumbent

  • PQ 19.1%

    Francis Deroo

  • PCQ 16.8%

    Kristian Solarik

  • QS 5.5%

    Florian Martin

  • Other 1.5%

    Joseph Cianflone Canadian Party of Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP CAQ PQ PCQ
HereSoulanges 31.2%26.0%19.1%16.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +7.8 21.3% +4.7 27.9% −8.8 16.1% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Soulanges, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Marilyne Picard

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Marilyne Picard

    Marilyne Picard

    Mother of a seriously ill child, Marilyne Picard founded Parents Until the End, a movement aimed at securing better financial support for families with severely disabled children before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Soulanges in 2018. She served as parliamentary assistant to Christian Dubé, Minister of Health and Social Services, and assisted him in implementing his vision.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Joseph Cianflone

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Kristian Solarik

    Kristian Solarik

    A professional working in the fields of transportation, security and sales, Kristian has built a career based on a sense of responsibility, customer service and the search for concrete solutions. Involved in politics for several years, he now wishes to put his experience at the service of Soulanges citizens to represent their interests with seriousness, closeness and determination.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Francis Deroo

    Francis Deroo

    Former mayor of Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Francis Deroo's political involvement as the Soulanges candidate deepened his knowledge of citizens and regional organizations through respectful, trusting relationships. He is entering politics to help build an independent Quebec. He has always been a sovereigntist, voted yes in 1995, and believes the sovereignty project has room for francophones, anglophones, and allophones.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Olivier Bertin-Mahieux

    Olivier Bertin-Mahieux

    A dedicated leader and recognized motivator, Olivier Bertin-Mahieux has served as Executive Director of the Paul Gérin-Lajoie Foundation since 2021, where he has notably helped expand the reach of the renowned Dictée P.G.L. to adults in the workplace and immigrants undergoing French language training. Convinced that proficiency in French is a powerful driver of integration and a sense of belonging, he has always placed education and access to opportunities at the heart of his commitment. A graduate of McGill University with a degree in business and a master’s degree in political science from the University of Montreal, he has more than 25 years of experience in public affairs across a variety of sectors, including education, immigration, rail transportation, horticulture, and international cooperation. He has also held positions in the office of the Minister of International Relations and La Francophonie. Deeply committed to Quebec’s youth, Olivier Bertin-Mahieux has served on the boards of directors of the Office Québec-Monde pour la Jeunesse and the Office franco-québécois pour la jeunesse, among others, helping to open the doors of the Francophonie to younger generations. Deeply aware of the realities of a rapidly growing region, he aims to place education, access to services, and community development at the heart of his political commitment. Convinced of the importance of a people-centered and unifying policy, he intends to defend the interests of families, youth, and seniors in Soulanges with attentiveness, rigor, and determination.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Florian Martin

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
20.3 pts
Turnout
67.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marilyne Picard Elected CAQ 17,114 42.6
Catherine St-Amour QLP 8,761 21.8
Éloïse Coulombe PCQ 5,006 12.5
Sophie Samson QS 4,353 10.8
Samuel Patenaude PQ 4,124 10.3
Kristian Solarik Other 795 2.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026