Riding profile

Beauharnois

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Beauharnois: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
86%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
44%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 34.0%

    Alexandre Daneau

  • CAQ 28.3%

    Claude Reid incumbent

  • QLP 16.0%

    Charles Royer Tremblay

  • PCQ 13.3%

    Angélika Homère

  • QS 7.8%

    Virginie Helene Hockers

  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereBeauharnois 34.0%28.3%16.0%13.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +6.1 21.3% +7.0 23.4% −7.4 16.1% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Beauharnois, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Claude Reid

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Claude Reid

    Claude Reid

    Since being elected as the Member of Parliament for Beauharnois, Claude Reid has leveraged his solid expertise in management and project coordination, fruits of his work experience and community involvement. Passionate about communications, he notably worked at Caisse Desjardins de Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, the Quebec Securities Commission, the Canadian Bankers Association, and was involved with Moisson-Sud-Ouest.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Angélika Homère

    Angélika Homère

    A sociologist, entrepreneur and resident of Beauharnois, Angélika Homère specializes in gender, equity and diversity. Originally from Haiti, she chose to build her life in Quebec, where she has become deeply rooted in her community. Her professional background and civic engagement have allowed her to develop a solid understanding of the realities experienced by families, workers and entrepreneurs. Angélika wishes to represent the citizens of Beauharnois with listening, pragmatism and proximity. She advocates for concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, support economic development, improve access to healthcare and ease the tax and regulatory burden. She believes that responsible government management is essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Alexandre Daneau

    Alexandre Daneau

    A graduate of Collège de Valleyfield and Conservatoire d'Art dramatique de Montréal, Alexandre Daneau has been a theatre actor for about twenty years. In parallel, he is owner of Patate Mallette, the family business established in 1956. He has also been engaged in the entrepreneurial community of his region, notably in the development of Bistro Ferland and the microbrassery La Centrale, and has mentored several revitalizations of businesses in Beauharnois. "Quebec's independence is not a utopia, it is a goal, a destination to govern toward. It is the only way to allow our regions to develop according to their priorities and to preserve what defines us collectively. The Parti Québécois is the most structured political tool to carry this project with seriousness, clarity, and sense of responsibility, and it is in this spirit that I commit to it today."

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Charles Royer Tremblay

    Charles Royer Tremblay

    Charles Royer Tremblay grew up in St-Chrysostome and completed his entire schooling in the Montérégie region. He completed his secondary studies in Beauharnois, in the International program, then went on to CEGEP de Valleyfield, a course of study that led him to university in political science as well as to the École nationale d'administration publique for his graduate studies. After university, he embarked on an international path that led him to live for ten years in Asia. He worked there in the tourism, construction, and infrastructure sectors, while founding and running his own company. This professional immersion allowed him to gain a concrete understanding of foreign markets, regional economic dynamics, and the operational realities linked to project development in varied cultural contexts. Upon his return to Quebec, the PLQ candidate in Beauharnois puts this international expertise to use in economic development, notably by supporting Quebec businesses in diversifying their markets. His approach combines rigour, strategy, and pragmatism, nourished by unique field experience. × I commit to voting for Charles Royer Tremblay as member in the constituency of Beauharnois

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Virginie Helene Hockers

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
35.9 pts
Turnout
66.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claude Reid Elected CAQ 17,882 53.8
Claudine Desforges PQ 5,640 17.0
Emilie Poirier QS 4,299 12.9
Chantal Dauphinais PCQ 3,112 9.4
Marc Blanchard QLP 1,940 5.8
Hélène Savard Other 243 0.7
Mathieu Taillefer Other 136 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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