Riding profile

Huntingdon

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Huntingdon: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
62%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 28.0%

    Stéphane Bisaillon

  • QLP 23.6%

    Connor Stacey

  • PQ 23.3%

    Frédéric Laplante

  • PCQ 17.4%

    Chantal Dauphinais

  • QS 6.2%
  • Other 1.5%

    Dale Langille Canadian Party of Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ QLP PQ PCQ
HereHuntingdon 28.0%23.6%23.3%17.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +6.7 23.4% +0.1 27.9% −4.6 16.1% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Huntingdon, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Carole Mallette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Stéphane Bisaillon

    Stéphane Bisaillon

    Deeply rooted in Huntingdon, Stéphane Bisaillon is an agricultural producer in Saint-Jacques-le-Mineur, where his family has farmed the land for five generations. Coming from a long farming tradition, he is intimately familiar with the realities of the rural world and the issues facing producers in the region. Known for his sense of consensus and his commitment to defending the interests of a community, he has been active for nearly 25 years within the bodies of the Fédération de l'UPA de la Montérégie, where he notably held the position of 2nd Vice-President, before being appointed 1st Vice-President of the organization last December. Invested in defending the interests of his community, he actively participates in debates concerning the future of agriculture and rural areas, particularly on environmental issues and the competitiveness of the regions. His commitment is also reflected through his role as President of the ALUS Montérégie committee, which supports agro-environmental initiatives led by agricultural producers.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Dale Langille

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Chantal Dauphinais

    Chantal Dauphinais

    Originally from Hemmingford and coming from an apple-growing family established in the region for several generations, Chantal Dauphinais is a mother of two children and grandmother of two grandchildren. Deeply rooted in her community, she knows well the realities faced by families, farmers, and entrepreneurs who contribute to the vitality of the region.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Frédéric Laplante

    Frédéric Laplante

    Frédéric Laplante is a French teacher at the secondary school level. Our candidate from Huntingdon finds it extremely rewarding to observe Quebec youth taking ownership of our national language by learning to read, write, and speak it. His knowledge of the reality of the school system and of young people will be very useful to the Parti Québécois. "I know Napierville like the back of my hand, since a large part of my family has lived there for several generations. Academic success, the promotion of French, our food sovereignty, as well as the protection of our SMEs are the issues that matter to me," explained the Parti Québécois candidate.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Connor Stacey

    Connor Stacey

    Born and raised in Huntingdon, with a degree in political science from McGill University, Connor Stacey has chosen to dedicate his career to serving his community and promoting the development of his region. His commitment is rooted in a deep understanding of the region and the people who bring it to life: entrepreneurs, farmers, workers, families, and community leaders. His political career began working with Stéphane Billette, then the Liberal member of the National Assembly for Huntingdon (2008–2018). This initial experience gave him an inside look at the realities of the riding, the issues that directly affect residents, and the ability of local stakeholders to move their projects forward. Mr. Stacey then continued his career in the private sector as director of business development at a Quebec-based small-to-medium-sized enterprise, where he gained firsthand insight into the challenges faced by local businesses, particularly in the areas of growth, workforce, and economic development. He later put his experience to work for a federal member of Parliament, making tangible contributions to projects related to economic development and regional vitality. In this role, he deepened his understanding of the programs and funding mechanisms that enable municipalities, businesses, and organizations to bring transformative projects to fruition. His commitment, however, has never been limited to the political arena. Whether as a school board trustee for the New Frontiers School Board or through his involvement in areas such as health and sports, Connor Stacey has continued to be directly engaged in his community. These experiences have reinforced his belief that the best solutions emerge when decisions are grounded in real-world realities and developed in collaboration with the people who experience those realities every day. As a family man, Connor Stacey has chosen to stay in the region and raise his children there. Huntingdon is therefore not a district he needs to get to know: it is the area he knows, where he lives, and to which he is deeply attached. He is well aware of the region’s strengths as well as the challenges faced by families, businesses, and communities in the district.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
32.2 pts
Turnout
64.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carole Mallette Elected CAQ 13,664 46.6
Jean-Claude Poissant QLP 4,214 14.4
François Gagnon PCQ 3,923 13.4
Nathan Leblanc PQ 3,522 12.0
Emmanuelle Perras QS 3,265 11.2
José Bro Other 367 1.3
Raymond Frizzell Other 339 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026