Riding profile
Châteauguay
The question
Châteauguay: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
QLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 82%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 36%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | CAQ | PQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChâteauguay | 32.7% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 14.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +9.3 | 21.3% +3.5 | 27.9% −6.9 | 16.1% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Châteauguay, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 33% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Marie-Belle Gendron
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent 
Marie-Belle Gendron
Born in Léry and living in the Châteauguay riding, Marie-Belle is undoubtedly a local. With 20 years of experience managing Châteauguay Dental Clinic, she was appointed in 2020 as President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Grand-Roussillon.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Hannah Wolker
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Jose Bro
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Mohsen Eshtiaghi
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Yannick Trudeau
Since 2020 Yannick Trudeau has been an urban-planning adviser in Montreal's sports and major-parks service, managing standards and development programs for sports and aquatic infrastructure worth nearly $1 billion in the ten-year capital plan. With more than 20 years in municipal affairs, the Châteauguay candidate has expertise in sports, recreation, planning, and public infrastructure. He believes Quebec has the resources, skills, institutions, and talent to take charge of its future and build a more effective, responsible state closer to citizens.
source ↗ - QLP Challenger
Félix Rhéaume
A law graduate of the University of Sherbrooke and holder of a master’s degree in international relations, Félix Rhéaume has held several positions within the Government of Quebec, including advisor to the premier and chief of staff to the Minister of Indigenous Affairs. He later served as vice president of the Federation of Quebec Chambers of Commerce and director of public affairs at the Quebec Construction Association, where he oversaw the representation of an industry at the forefront of the response to the housing crisis. In that role, he regularly spoke to the media about housing and infrastructure issues. A father and stepfather to four daughters, he also serves on the boards of the Montreal Bar Association, the McCord Museum Foundation, and the organization Québec Net Positif.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger 
Marianne Pharand Roy
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Belle Gendron Elected | CAQ | 13,038 | 39.1 | — |
| Jean-François Primeau | QLP | 8,260 | 24.8 | — |
| Martin Bécotte | QS | 4,261 | 12.8 | — |
| Marianne Lafleur | PQ | 3,947 | 11.8 | — |
| Patric Viau | PCQ | 3,363 | 10.1 | — |
| Stephanie Stevenson | Other | 463 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026