Riding profile

Châteauguay

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Châteauguay: will CAQ lose this seat to PLQ?

Editorial read

Châteauguay, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 23% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie-Belle Gendron

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Marie-Belle Gendron

    Marie-Belle Gendron

    Born in Léry and living in the Châteauguay riding, Marie-Belle is undoubtedly a local. With 20 years of experience managing Châteauguay Dental Clinic, she was appointed in 2020 as President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Grand-Roussillon.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger
    Félix Rhéaume

    Félix Rhéaume

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.1
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 47.2%
  • PQ 23.1%
  • CAQ 11.4%
  • PCQ 10.4%
  • QS 6.1%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PQ CAQ PCQ
HereChâteauguay 47.2%23.1%11.4%10.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +20.0 30.1% −7.0 20.3% −8.9 13.2% −2.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
14.4 pts
Turnout
62.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Belle Gendron Elected CAQ 13,038 39.1 —
Jean-François Primeau PLQ 8,260 24.8 —
Martin Bécotte QS 4,261 12.8 —
Marianne Lafleur PQ 3,947 11.8 —
Patric Viau PCQ 3,363 10.1 —
Stephanie Stevenson Other 463 1.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026