Riding profile

Jacques-Cartier

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Jacques-Cartier: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 64.5%

    Gregory Kelley incumbent

  • PCQ 14.6%

    Pina Di Dio

  • Other 9.1%
  • CAQ 8.7%

    Santiago Proteau Sanchez

  • PQ 2.7%

    Céline Dauphinais

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PCQ Other CAQ
HereJacques-Cartier 64.5%14.6%9.1%8.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +41.0 16.1% −1.5 1.7% +7.4 21.3% −12.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Jacques-Cartier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 64% vote share, against 15% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gregory Kelley

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Gregory Kelley

    Gregory Kelley

    Gregory Kelley was elected in the general election of October 1, 2018, and re-elected in the general election of October 3, 2022. Academic course Master of Public Administration, Queens University (2009-2010) Bachelor of Arts (B.A.), Studies in History and Political Science, McGill University (2006-2009) Vocational training Before entering politics, Gregory worked for nearly ten years as a political advisor in various ministerial offices. In particular, he acted as special advisor to Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard on issues affecting the English-speaking community. He then worked alongside Kathleen Weil at the Secrétariat aux relations avec les Québécois d'expression anglaise. This experience enabled him to develop an in-depth understanding of the realities and needs of this community. Building on this expertise, in October 2021 he tabled Bill 590 to make French-language educational services free of charge for anyone residing in Quebec. Over the course of his parliamentary career, Gregory has had the privilege of working on a number of important files, including Aboriginal affairs, forests and fisheries, social solidarity and community action. Gregory is currently the energy spokesperson, and is renowned for his commitment to the transition to renewable and sustainable energy sources. He is also responsible for natural resources, youth and the North Shore region. Other passions Gregory is a family man, a devoted spouse and a proud father of his two boys. Deeply rooted in his county, he was born, raised, educated and worked here. Today, it's also where he chooses to raise his family and contribute to his community. Gregory will be the official candidate for the Quebec Liberal Party in the Jacques-Cartier riding in the October 5, 2026 general election.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Santiago Proteau Sanchez

    Santiago Proteau Sanchez

    Finance student at the University of Ottawa, political advisor and intern as an investment solutions analyst, Santiago stands out for his commitment to politics and his passion for finance since childhood. He notably founded the Association of Quebec School Boards and was involved with Young Politicians Canada.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Bianca Jitaru

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Yesica Ochoa

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Pina Di Dio

    Pina Di Dio

    Pina Di Dio is a trained jurist and entrepreneur with dual degrees in civil law and common law from the University of Ottawa. Her career has taken her to law firms, the office of a former Quebec justice minister and a Canadian senator, and the Commission des droits de la personne et des droits de la jeunesse. Trilingual, she is fluent in French, English and Italian. Pina wishes to put her legal, institutional and entrepreneurial experience at the service of Jacques-Cartier residents. She advocates public administration that is more effective, transparent and results-oriented, as well as reducing regulatory burdens to make life easier for citizens, self-employed workers and entrepreneurs.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Céline Dauphinais

    Céline Dauphinais

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Gabriel Laurence-Brook

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
51.3 pts
Turnout
63.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gregory Kelley Elected QLP 18,158 62.6
Louis-Charles Fortier PCQ 3,260 11.2
Rébecca Guénard-Chouinard CAQ 2,735 9.4
Arthur Fischer Other 1,462 5.0
Marie-Ève Mathieu QS 1,456 5.0
Virginie Beaudet Other 1,074 3.7
Chantal Beauregard PQ 877 3.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026