Riding profile
Jacques-Cartier
The question
Jacques-Cartier: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Editorial read
Jacques-Cartier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 71% vote share, against 11% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gregory Kelley
Sits with PLQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PLQ Incumbent 
Gregory Kelley
source ↗ -
CAQ Challenger 
Santiago Proteau Sanchez
Finance student at the University of Ottawa, political advisor and intern as an investment solutions analyst, Santiago stands out for his commitment to politics and his passion for finance since childhood. He notably founded the Association of Quebec School Boards and was involved with Young Politicians Canada.
source ↗
Current forecast
PLQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 59.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PCQ | Other | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJacques-Cartier | 70.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 5.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +43.6 | 13.2% −2.2 | 2.0% +8.4 | 20.3% −15.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Kelley Elected | PLQ | 18,158 | 62.6 | — |
| Louis-Charles Fortier | PCQ | 3,260 | 11.2 | — |
| Rébecca Guénard-Chouinard | CAQ | 2,735 | 9.4 | — |
| Arthur Fischer | Other | 1,462 | 5.0 | — |
| Marie-Ève Mathieu | QS | 1,456 | 5.0 | — |
| Virginie Beaudet | Other | 1,074 | 3.7 | — |
| Chantal Beauregard | PQ | 877 | 3.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026