Riding profile
Jacques-Cartier
The question
Jacques-Cartier: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 49.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PCQ | Other | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJacques-Cartier | 64.5% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +41.0 | 16.1% −1.5 | 1.7% +7.4 | 21.3% −12.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Jacques-Cartier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 64% vote share, against 15% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gregory Kelley
Sits with QLP
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
QLP Incumbent
Gregory Kelley
Gregory Kelley was elected in the general election of October 1, 2018, and re-elected in the general election of October 3, 2022. Academic course Master of Public Administration, Queens University (2009-2010) Bachelor of Arts (B.A.), Studies in History and Political Science, McGill University (2006-2009) Vocational training Before entering politics, Gregory worked for nearly ten years as a political advisor in various ministerial offices. In particular, he acted as special advisor to Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard on issues affecting the English-speaking community. He then worked alongside Kathleen Weil at the Secrétariat aux relations avec les Québécois d'expression anglaise. This experience enabled him to develop an in-depth understanding of the realities and needs of this community. Building on this expertise, in October 2021 he tabled Bill 590 to make French-language educational services free of charge for anyone residing in Quebec. Over the course of his parliamentary career, Gregory has had the privilege of working on a number of important files, including Aboriginal affairs, forests and fisheries, social solidarity and community action. Gregory is currently the energy spokesperson, and is renowned for his commitment to the transition to renewable and sustainable energy sources. He is also responsible for natural resources, youth and the North Shore region. Other passions Gregory is a family man, a devoted spouse and a proud father of his two boys. Deeply rooted in his county, he was born, raised, educated and worked here. Today, it's also where he chooses to raise his family and contribute to his community. Gregory will be the official candidate for the Quebec Liberal Party in the Jacques-Cartier riding in the October 5, 2026 general election.
source ↗ -
CAQ Challenger
Santiago Proteau Sanchez
Finance student at the University of Ottawa, political advisor and intern as an investment solutions analyst, Santiago stands out for his commitment to politics and his passion for finance since childhood. He notably founded the Association of Quebec School Boards and was involved with Young Politicians Canada.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Bianca Jitaru
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Yesica Ochoa
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Pina Di Dio
Pina Di Dio is a trained jurist and entrepreneur with dual degrees in civil law and common law from the University of Ottawa. Her career has taken her to law firms, the office of a former Quebec justice minister and a Canadian senator, and the Commission des droits de la personne et des droits de la jeunesse. Trilingual, she is fluent in French, English and Italian. Pina wishes to put her legal, institutional and entrepreneurial experience at the service of Jacques-Cartier residents. She advocates public administration that is more effective, transparent and results-oriented, as well as reducing regulatory burdens to make life easier for citizens, self-employed workers and entrepreneurs.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Céline Dauphinais
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Gabriel Laurence-Brook
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Kelley Elected | QLP | 18,158 | 62.6 | — |
| Louis-Charles Fortier | PCQ | 3,260 | 11.2 | — |
| Rébecca Guénard-Chouinard | CAQ | 2,735 | 9.4 | — |
| Arthur Fischer | Other | 1,462 | 5.0 | — |
| Marie-Ève Mathieu | QS | 1,456 | 5.0 | — |
| Virginie Beaudet | Other | 1,074 | 3.7 | — |
| Chantal Beauregard | PQ | 877 | 3.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026