Riding profile

Masson

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Masson: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Masson, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 38% vote share, against 33% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu Lemay

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Challenger

    Martin Gaulin

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Stéphane Handfield

    Stéphane Handfield

    Over the past four years, Mr. Handfield served as our co-spokesperson on immigration matters. An immigration lawyer for 34 years, he now wishes to put his expertise at the service of Quebec to repair our immigration system and make it more consistent with our aspirations and capacity to welcome.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
83%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
51%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 37.6%
  • CAQ 33.0%
  • PLQ 15.1%
  • PCQ 8.0%
  • QS 5.5%
  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ PCQ
HereMasson 37.6%33.0%15.1%8.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +7.6 20.3% +12.7 27.2% −12.1 13.2% −5.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
33.4 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Lemay Elected CAQ 18,195 51.6 —
Stéphane Handfield PQ 6,432 18.2 —
Émile Bellerose-Simard QS 4,610 13.1 —
François Truchon PCQ 2,972 8.4 —
Gabriel Bourret PLQ 2,723 7.7 —
Marc-André Bélisle Other 332 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026