Riding profile

Masson

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Masson: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
75%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
57%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 33.5%

    Stéphane Handfield

  • CAQ 30.0%

    Anik Girard

  • QLP 16.4%

    Martin Gaulin

  • PCQ 12.1%

    Benoit Lanoue

  • QS 7.2%

    Stéphane Durupt

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereMasson 33.5%30.0%16.4%12.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +5.6 21.3% +8.7 23.4% −7.0 16.1% −4.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Masson, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu Lemay

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Anik Girard

    Anik Girard

    A graduate of McGill–HEC Montréal Executive MBA, Anik Girard has developed solid expertise in organizational leadership, strategic management and team mobilization. With over 20 years of experience in business management, she has notably held the positions of Chief Executive Officer and Editor-in-Chief at TC Média (Groupe Constructo), where she piloted business and operational activities for two decades. Her professional background demonstrates a strong understanding of administrative and governmental structures, mastery of issues related to public contracts and the ability to create alliances that move forward structural projects. Recognized for her rigour, transparency and determination, she also distinguishes herself through her social commitment and governance involvement. Since 2018, she has contributed to the mission of a community organization helping women and children affected by domestic violence, and has served on the board of directors of the Office jeunesse international du Québec since 2007.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Benoit Lanoue

    Benoit Lanoue

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Stéphane Handfield

    Stéphane Handfield

    Over the past four years, Mr. Handfield served as our co-spokesperson on immigration matters. An immigration lawyer for 34 years, he now wishes to put his expertise at the service of Quebec to repair our immigration system and make it more consistent with our aspirations and capacity to welcome.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Martin Gaulin

    Martin Gaulin

    A Terrebonne resident for over 20 years and owner of a commercial printing company for three decades, Martin Gaulin enters provincial politics with the PLQ. He owns Imprimerie Chatelain, a third-generation SME founded in 1958. His experience helps him understand Quebec entrepreneurs and business succession. He chairs the Deux-Montagnes Hockey League and supports community organizations and youth sports. × I commit to voting for Martin Gaulin as member for Masson

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Stéphane Durupt

    Stéphane Durupt

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
33.4 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Lemay Elected CAQ 18,195 51.6 —
Stéphane Handfield PQ 6,432 18.2 —
Émile Bellerose-Simard QS 4,610 13.1 —
François Truchon PCQ 2,972 8.4 —
Gabriel Bourret QLP 2,723 7.7 —
Marc-André Bélisle Other 332 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026