Riding profile

Saint-Jérôme

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Saint-Jérôme: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
16%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.5%

    Sandrine Michon

  • CAQ 26.4%

    Carla Pierre-Paul

  • QLP 13.1%

    Suzanne Pomerleau

  • PCQ 12.7%

    Myriam Laroche

  • QS 10.5%

    Orphée Dubé-Gervais

  • Other 0.8%

    Sandra Hould Climat Québec - Équipe Martine Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereSaint-Jérôme 36.5%26.4%13.1%12.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +8.6 21.3% +5.1 23.4% −10.3 16.1% −3.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Jérôme, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Youri Chassin

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Carla Pierre-Paul

    Carla Pierre-Paul

    Recognized for her sustained involvement in various social and municipal issues, Carla Pierre-Paul served as a city councillor, deputy mayor, and assembly president during her term on the City of Saint-Jérôme from 2021 to 2025, an experience that allowed her to develop a very good understanding of the needs and realities of the region's citizens.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Sandra Hould

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Myriam Laroche

    Myriam Laroche

    Myriam is the mother of four teenagers and a primary-care nurse practitioner. With nearly twenty years’ experience in the health network, she has worked in intensive care, emergency care, paediatric palliative care, schools, private clinics and telemedicine. She also teaches at university and has a practical understanding of the strengths and challenges of Quebec’s health-care system. Active in her community, Myriam helped create a free medical clinic for people experiencing homelessness and works with several community organizations. Known for her attentiveness and unifying leadership, she wants to put her experience at the service of Saint-Jérôme residents and advocate solutions grounded in realities on the ground.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sandrine Michon

    Sandrine Michon

    Specialized educator with DPJ and director of the Alliance of Professional and Technical Personnel in Health and Social Services, Sandrine Michon knows well the workings of the youth protection system. She is convinced of the need to do more for our young people, for their safety and fulfillment.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Suzanne Pomerleau

    Suzanne Pomerleau

    With 42 years of experience as a notary, Suzanne Pomerleau has also taught business law at Collège Lionel-Groulx in Sainte-Thérèse. Now retired, she hopes to use her experience to help improve the quality of life for families and seniors in the Saint-Jérôme riding. A longtime resident of the Laurentian region, the QLP candidate for Saint-Jérôme lived in Saint-Sauveur for many years. With a curiosity about the world, she backpacked around the globe at the age of 30.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Orphée Dubé-Gervais

    Orphée Dubé-Gervais

    Orphée Dubé-Gervais is an activist committed to fighting social inequalities, running in Saint-Jérôme to give back to her community. A former health-care worker and administrator of Maison de Sophia, she has practical knowledge of issues related to homelessness and women in vulnerable situations. This UQAM student in law and feminist studies advocates better access to justice and solutions to the housing crisis, including a rent registry and action against abusive increases. Currently involved with the Clinique juridique itinérante and the Dispensaire, she also defends stable community-sector funding and universal access to public health care. Close to people, she wants politics based on listening and action on the ground.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.2 pts
Turnout
65.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Youri Chassin Elected CAQ 20,527 50.0
Sandrine Michon PQ 7,727 18.8
Marc-Olivier Neveu QS 6,411 15.6
Maxime Clermont PCQ 3,998 9.7
Martin Plante QLP 1,858 4.5
Marcella Bustamante Other 517 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026