Riding profile
Saint-Jérôme
The question
Saint-Jérôme: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Competitive
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.1
- P(close race)
- 16%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint-Jérôme | 36.5% | 26.4% | 13.1% | 12.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +8.6 | 21.3% +5.1 | 23.4% −10.3 | 16.1% −3.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint-Jérôme, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Youri Chassin
Sits with Independent
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Challenger
Carla Pierre-Paul
Recognized for her sustained involvement in various social and municipal issues, Carla Pierre-Paul served as a city councillor, deputy mayor, and assembly president during her term on the City of Saint-Jérôme from 2021 to 2025, an experience that allowed her to develop a very good understanding of the needs and realities of the region's citizens.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Sandra Hould
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Myriam Laroche
Myriam is the mother of four teenagers and a primary-care nurse practitioner. With nearly twenty years’ experience in the health network, she has worked in intensive care, emergency care, paediatric palliative care, schools, private clinics and telemedicine. She also teaches at university and has a practical understanding of the strengths and challenges of Quebec’s health-care system. Active in her community, Myriam helped create a free medical clinic for people experiencing homelessness and works with several community organizations. Known for her attentiveness and unifying leadership, she wants to put her experience at the service of Saint-Jérôme residents and advocate solutions grounded in realities on the ground.
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PQ Challenger
Sandrine Michon
Specialized educator with DPJ and director of the Alliance of Professional and Technical Personnel in Health and Social Services, Sandrine Michon knows well the workings of the youth protection system. She is convinced of the need to do more for our young people, for their safety and fulfillment.
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QLP Challenger
Suzanne Pomerleau
With 42 years of experience as a notary, Suzanne Pomerleau has also taught business law at Collège Lionel-Groulx in Sainte-Thérèse. Now retired, she hopes to use her experience to help improve the quality of life for families and seniors in the Saint-Jérôme riding. A longtime resident of the Laurentian region, the QLP candidate for Saint-Jérôme lived in Saint-Sauveur for many years. With a curiosity about the world, she backpacked around the globe at the age of 30.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Orphée Dubé-Gervais
Orphée Dubé-Gervais is an activist committed to fighting social inequalities, running in Saint-Jérôme to give back to her community. A former health-care worker and administrator of Maison de Sophia, she has practical knowledge of issues related to homelessness and women in vulnerable situations. This UQAM student in law and feminist studies advocates better access to justice and solutions to the housing crisis, including a rent registry and action against abusive increases. Currently involved with the Clinique juridique itinérante and the Dispensaire, she also defends stable community-sector funding and universal access to public health care. Close to people, she wants politics based on listening and action on the ground.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youri Chassin Elected | CAQ | 20,527 | 50.0 | — |
| Sandrine Michon | PQ | 7,727 | 18.8 | — |
| Marc-Olivier Neveu | QS | 6,411 | 15.6 | — |
| Maxime Clermont | PCQ | 3,998 | 9.7 | — |
| Martin Plante | QLP | 1,858 | 4.5 | — |
| Marcella Bustamante | Other | 517 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026