Riding profile

Saint-Jérôme

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Saint-Jérôme: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Saint-Jérôme, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 31% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Youri Chassin

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Carla Pierre-Paul

    Carla Pierre-Paul

    Recognized for her sustained involvement in various social and municipal issues, Carla Pierre-Paul served as a city councillor, deputy mayor, and assembly president during her term on the City of Saint-Jérôme from 2021 to 2025, an experience that allowed her to develop a very good understanding of the needs and realities of the region's citizens.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sandrine Michon

    Sandrine Michon

    Specialized educator with DPJ and director of the Alliance of Professional and Technical Personnel in Health and Social Services, Sandrine Michon knows well the workings of the youth protection system. She is convinced of the need to do more for our young people, for their safety and fulfillment.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
19%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 40.0%
  • CAQ 30.8%
  • PLQ 10.9%
  • PCQ 9.2%
  • QS 8.3%
  • Other 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ PCQ
HereSaint-Jérôme 40.0%30.8%10.9%9.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +10.0 20.3% +10.5 27.2% −16.3 13.2% −4.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.2 pts
Turnout
65.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Youri Chassin Elected CAQ 20,527 50.0 —
Sandrine Michon PQ 7,727 18.8 —
Marc-Olivier Neveu QS 6,411 15.6 —
Maxime Clermont PCQ 3,998 9.7 —
Martin Plante PLQ 1,858 4.5 —
Marcella Bustamante Other 517 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026