Riding profile

Prévost

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Prévost: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Prévost, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 41% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sonia Bélanger

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Sonia Bélanger

    Sonia Bélanger

    A renowned manager, Sonia Bélanger held the position of President and CEO of CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal since 2015. A trained nurse, she works to mobilize stakeholders and medical staff in implementing numerous projects aimed at improving the health and well-being of the population.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger
    Paul Landry

    Paul Landry

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Anne Nguyen

    Anne Nguyen

    Graduated in business analysis from the prestigious Harvard University, our candidate is well-positioned to understand how important it is to work towards Quebec's digital sovereignty. She has chosen politics today because she is deeply attached to Quebec and desires to see it evolve ahead of the technological changes of our time.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 41.4%
  • CAQ 28.0%
  • PLQ 12.3%
  • PCQ 11.1%
  • QS 6.3%
  • Other 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ PCQ
HerePrévost 41.4%28.0%12.3%11.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +11.3 20.3% +7.7 27.2% −14.9 13.2% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.6 pts
Turnout
69.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sonia Bélanger Elected CAQ 15,903 46.2 —
Thérèse Chabot PQ 6,737 19.6 —
Rose Crevier-Dagenais QS 5,196 15.1 —
Benoit Cloutier PCQ 4,019 11.7 —
Suzanne Pomerleau PLQ 2,072 6.0 —
Michelle Vaz Other 374 1.1 —
Michel Leclerc Other 100 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026