Riding profile

Prévost

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Prévost: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 37.0%

    Anne Nguyen

  • CAQ 24.2%

    Sonia Bélanger incumbent

  • QLP 14.5%

    Paul Landry

  • PCQ 14.3%

    Joyce Sauriol

  • QS 9.1%

    Alix Gravel

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HerePrévost 37.0%24.2%14.5%14.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +9.1 21.3% +2.9 23.4% −8.9 16.1% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Prévost, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sonia Bélanger

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Sonia Bélanger

    Sonia Bélanger

    A renowned manager, Sonia Bélanger held the position of President and CEO of CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal since 2015. A trained nurse, she works to mobilize stakeholders and medical staff in implementing numerous projects aimed at improving the health and well-being of the population.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Joyce Sauriol

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Anne Nguyen

    Anne Nguyen

    Graduated in business analysis from the prestigious Harvard University, our candidate is well-positioned to understand how important it is to work towards Quebec's digital sovereignty. She has chosen politics today because she is deeply attached to Quebec and desires to see it evolve ahead of the technological changes of our time.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Paul Landry

    Paul Landry

    With a background rooted in community engagement, Paul Landry is known for bringing people together and proposing concrete solutions to local issues. Raised where solidarity, work and listening are central values, he developed an early interest in public life and collective well-being. Over the years he gained varied professional and community experience, collaborating with local stakeholders on economic development, access to services and family support. Known for a pragmatic, human approach, he favours dialogue and cooperation. In Prévost he wants to support the region's vitality, the local economy, affordable housing and local services, with particular attention to young people, seniors and infrastructure. He wants to represent Prévost citizens with integrity, transparency and determination.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Alix Gravel

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.6 pts
Turnout
69.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sonia Bélanger Elected CAQ 15,903 46.2 —
Thérèse Chabot PQ 6,737 19.6 —
Rose Crevier-Dagenais QS 5,196 15.1 —
Benoit Cloutier PCQ 4,019 11.7 —
Suzanne Pomerleau QLP 2,072 6.0 —
Michelle Vaz Other 374 1.1 —
Michel Leclerc Other 100 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026