Riding profile
Bertrand
The question
Bertrand: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Bertrand, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 44% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
France-Élaine Duranceau
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent 
France-Élaine Duranceau
An expert in the real estate, accounting, and taxation sectors, France-Élaine Duranceau has a developed economic profile. She has been active for over 20 years within various large-scale companies, whether as an auditor and tax specialist, vice-president, or serving on various committees and boards of directors.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger Felipe Morales
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PLQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBertrand | 44.2% | 25.5% | 12.5% | 9.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +14.2 | 20.3% +5.2 | 27.2% −14.6 | 13.2% −3.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France-Élaine Duranceau Elected | CAQ | 15,927 | 45.3 | — |
| Guillaume Freire | PQ | 7,259 | 20.6 | — |
| Julie Francoeur | QS | 5,682 | 16.1 | — |
| Philippe Meloni | PCQ | 3,444 | 9.8 | — |
| André Nadeau | PLQ | 2,115 | 6.0 | — |
| Karine Steinberger | Other | 448 | 1.3 | — |
| Marie-Eve Ouellette | Other | 162 | 0.5 | — |
| Samuel Fortin | Other | 151 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026