Riding profile

Portneuf

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Portneuf: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Portneuf, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 34% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Vincent Caron

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Vincent Caron

    Vincent Caron

    Elected as Member for Portneuf in 2018, Vincent Caron is originally from France and settled in the riding almost 25 years ago. Upon his arrival, this entrepreneur sought to integrate quickly into Quebec society and contribute to the region's tourism development.

    source ↗

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
68%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
76%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 35.5%
  • PCQ 33.7%
  • PQ 20.9%
  • PLQ 5.6%
  • QS 3.6%
  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PCQ PQ PLQ
HerePortneuf 35.5%33.7%20.9%5.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 20.3% +15.2 13.2% +20.5 30.1% −9.1 27.2% −21.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
17.6 pts
Turnout
73.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent Caron Elected CAQ 15,412 47.4 —
Jacinthe-Eve Arel PCQ 9,675 29.7 —
Alexandre Mc Cabe PQ 3,203 9.8 —
Anne-Marie Melançon QS 2,675 8.2 —
Patrick Hayes PLQ 916 2.8 —
Patrick Bourson Other 608 1.9 —
Karine Simard Other 40 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026