Riding profile

Portneuf

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Portneuf: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?

Current forecast

PCQ

Competitive

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
34%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 36.9%

    Marcel Bouchard

  • CAQ 29.9%

    Vincent Caron incumbent

  • PQ 18.8%
  • QLP 8.8%

    Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau

  • QS 4.8%

    Anne-Marie Melançon

  • Other 0.8%

    Jean Cloutier Climat Québec - Équipe Martine Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HerePortneuf 36.9%29.9%18.8%8.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +20.8 21.3% +8.6 27.9% −9.1 23.4% −14.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Portneuf, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Vincent Caron

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Vincent Caron

    Vincent Caron

    Elected as Member for Portneuf in 2018, Vincent Caron is originally from France and settled in the riding almost 25 years ago. Upon his arrival, this entrepreneur sought to integrate quickly into Quebec society and contribute to the region's tourism development.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean Cloutier

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marcel Bouchard

    Marcel Bouchard

    A resident of Neuville for more than 25 years, Marcel Bouchard is a columnist, speaker and physical education teacher. Known for his outdoor columns, particularly on Salut Bonjour Week-end, he has dedicated his career to promoting physical activity, sports and outdoor recreation. He is also a spokesperson for the Parti conservateur du Québec on matters of sport, recreation and outdoor activities. Marcel wishes to represent the citizens of Portneuf with proximity, dynamism and commitment. He advocates for concrete solutions to encourage physical activity, restore purchasing power to families, reduce the fiscal and regulatory burden and support economic development in the regions. He believes that a more prosperous Quebec comes through healthier citizens and responsible state management.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau

    Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau

    Municipal councillor for the City of Sainte-Catherine-de-la-Jacques-Cartier, Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau is entering provincial politics to join the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard's leadership. After studying accounting, transportation and administration, he began his career as operations supervisor at Kaycan, a company specializing in building-material manufacturing, covering a large territory from Ottawa to Halifax. For more than three years, he held various positions there, including head of distribution for eastern Quebec and part of New Brunswick. Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau then became a project manager and interim head of operations and building services at the Société de protection des forêts contre les insectes et les maladies (SOPFIM), contributing to projects throughout Quebec. More recently, in April 2026, he accepted the position of head of operations for the greater Quebec City region at Groupe Ortec, a company specializing in supporting organizations with engineering, industrial and environmental services. Serving citizens being central to his career, Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau entered municipal politics and was elected councillor for District 1 of Sainte-Catherine-de-la-Jacques-Cartier with 71.51% of the vote in last November's election. In this role, he is also vice-president of the board and executive council of the Office municipal d'habitation du Grand-Portneuf. In addition to his municipal political involvement, Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau serves on several boards and committees of community organizations in the region. × I commit to voting for Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau as member for the riding of Portneuf

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Anne-Marie Melançon

    Anne-Marie Melançon

    Anne-Marie Melançon is an engaged citizen of Portneuf, where she has lived for 20 years. A Québec solidaire candidate in 2022, she taught sociology and ethics for 10 years and was coordinator of the Deschambault Public Market from 2013 to 2017. She has also been involved in local initiatives, such as the Portneuf agri-food table. She advocates greater support for the agricultural sector in the face of economic and climate challenges, as well as accessible public transit to better connect communities.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
17.6 pts
Turnout
73.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent Caron Elected CAQ 15,412 47.4
Jacinthe-Eve Arel PCQ 9,675 29.7
Alexandre Mc Cabe PQ 3,203 9.8
Anne-Marie Melançon QS 2,675 8.2
Patrick Hayes QLP 916 2.8
Patrick Bourson Other 608 1.9
Karine Simard Other 40 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026