Riding profile

Chauveau

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Chauveau: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Chauveau, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sylvain Lévesque

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 36.7%
  • PCQ 31.3%
  • PQ 19.2%
  • PLQ 7.9%
  • QS 4.3%
  • Other 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PCQ PQ PLQ
HereChauveau 36.7%31.3%19.2%7.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 20.3% +16.4 13.2% +18.1 30.1% −10.9 27.2% −19.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
15.0 pts
Turnout
75.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sylvain Lévesque Elected CAQ 20,292 46.8
Éric Duhaime PCQ 13,794 31.8
Jimena Ruiz Aragon QS 3,816 8.8
Charles-Hubert Riverin PQ 3,307 7.6
Igor Pivovar PLQ 1,651 3.8
Renaud Blais Other 213 0.5
Christine Lepage Other 201 0.5
Nicolas Bouffard-Savoie Other 44 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026