Riding profile

Chauveau

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Chauveau: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PCQ

Toss-up

Probability
63%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
55%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 33.2%

    Dr Karim Elayoubi

  • CAQ 31.5%

    Christian Lachance

  • PQ 17.8%

    Mathieu Foltz

  • QLP 11.6%

    John McGrath

  • QS 5.3%

    Émilie Couture

  • Other 0.6%

    William Beaudry Parti nul

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereChauveau 33.2%31.5%17.8%11.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +17.1 21.3% +10.2 27.9% −10.1 23.4% −11.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chauveau, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sylvain Lévesque

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Christian Lachance

    Christian Lachance

    An entrepreneur based in Lac Beauport for over 15 years, Christian Lachance enjoys great recognition in the constituency of Chauveau. Trained in business administration, he made his mark by building and managing several local businesses in sectors as varied as retail and real estate management. Owner of La Boutique du Lac in Lac-Beauport, he also manages two other businesses, where he supervises dozens of young workers. As president of the Chambre de commerce de La Jacques-Cartier since 2025, he maintains close ties with entrepreneurs, organizations, and various local stakeholders, giving him an in-depth knowledge of ground-level realities and issues related to economic development, community vitality, and quality of life in the area. His commitment and leadership earned him the title of Business Personality of the Year 2026 from the MRC de La Jacques-Cartier. Backed by recognized credibility within the business community, Christian Lachance stands out for his ability to bring people together, create lasting partnerships, and his deep roots in the community, where he has been actively involved for over 25 years.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    William Beaudry

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Dr Karim Elayoubi

    Dr Karim Elayoubi

    Originally from Saguenay, Dr. Karim Elayoubi is a general practitioner, a graduate of Université Laval, and specialized in family medicine at the Université de Montréal. His experience in family medicine and emergency medicine has given him a concrete understanding of the challenges facing the health system. Health spokesperson for the Parti conservateur du Québec and president of its Policy Commission, he wishes to put his expertise at the service of the residents of Chauveau. Dr. Elayoubi intends to represent the residents of Chauveau with rigour, attentiveness, and determination. He advocates concrete solutions to improve access to care, modernize the health system, reduce administrative barriers, and deliver more effective services, while placing patients at the heart of decision-making.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Mathieu Foltz

    Mathieu Foltz

    Mathieu Foltz established himself in Quebec City early in his career, founding and developing several businesses, including a translation firm that became a Canadian leader before employees took it over as a cooperative. He still runs two technology companies. Drawing on this business experience, he wants to serve Quebec and his fellow citizens and help make Quebec a country.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    John McGrath

    John McGrath

    An engineer, John holds a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering and a master’s degree in water engineering. His professional career has led him to work for cities of various sizes, in both water treatment and public works. John has first-hand knowledge of municipal realities and the challenges our cities face. His on-the-ground experience is particularly relevant to issues related to the municipal infrastructure maintenance backlog. His expertise and knowledge of the local context will be valuable assets for the citizens of Chauveau and the team.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Émilie Couture

    Émilie Couture

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
15.0 pts
Turnout
75.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sylvain Lévesque Elected CAQ 20,292 46.8
Éric Duhaime PCQ 13,794 31.8
Jimena Ruiz Aragon QS 3,816 8.8
Charles-Hubert Riverin PQ 3,307 7.6
Igor Pivovar QLP 1,651 3.8
Renaud Blais Other 213 0.5
Christine Lepage Other 201 0.5
Nicolas Bouffard-Savoie Other 44 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026