Riding profile

Chicoutimi

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Chicoutimi: a safe seat for the PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 39.5%

    Marie-Karlynn Laflamme incumbent

  • CAQ 23.5%

    Sandra Larouche

  • PCQ 17.4%

    Gabriella Myriam Mathieu

  • QLP 12.8%

    Jean-Marc Allard

  • QS 6.3%

    Jeanne Palardy

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereChicoutimi 39.5%23.5%17.4%12.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +11.6 21.3% +2.2 16.1% +1.3 23.4% −10.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chicoutimi, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 23% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie-Karlynn Laflamme

Sits with PQ

Since
2026-02-23
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Marie-Karlynn Laflamme

    Marie-Karlynn Laflamme

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Sandra Larouche

    Sandra Larouche

    Committed to developing family services for more than 25 years in the Chicoutimi riding, Sandra Larouche is an accomplished manager, firmly rooted in the community and eager to contribute to its future. Recognized for her strategic vision and ability to help organizations evolve, she has led CPE.BC des Lutins since 2006, coordinating home-based childcare services in the area and having overseen its creation. She brings people together around a shared vision and delivers lasting, structured projects. Her multidisciplinary training in administration, human resources and public administration complements expertise in governance, change management, government relations and organizational development. She now wants to put her management expertise, knowledge of government operations and mobilizing leadership at the service of Chicoutimi’s people.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Charles Olivier

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Olivier Dion

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Gabriella Myriam Mathieu

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger

    Jean-Marc Allard

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Jeanne Palardy

    Jeanne Palardy

    Jeanne devotes her life to fighting for women’s rights and against social injustices. A community-sector worker in Chicoutimi, she supports women who experience domestic violence every day and sees the consequences of inequality and underfunding of public services. A Québec solidaire candidate, she carries a progressive, feminist and sovereigntist project centred on social justice, access to affordable housing and improved support for families. Jeanne wants to bring to the National Assembly the voice of citizens in her region, who are listened to far too little.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
48.1 pts
Turnout
68.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-32.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrée Laforest Elected CAQ 19,345 62.3 —
Alice Villeneuve PQ 4,415 14.2 —
Adrien Guibert-Barthez QS 3,741 12.0 —
Éric Girard PCQ 2,619 8.4 —
Gabriel Caron QLP 943 3.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026