Riding profile

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 41% vote share, against 37% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Amélie Dionne

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Amélie Dionne

    Amélie Dionne

    A proud resident of the riding of Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata for as long as she can remember, Amélie knows her community's issues very well. Involved in many community organizations, member of several boards of directors and formerly a municipal councillor, she is driven by her desire to develop the region economically.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Louise Moreault

    Louise Moreault

    Native of Notre-Dame-du-Lac and from a family of six children, Louise grew up in an agricultural setting where family values, respect, and responsibility held a central place. Very involved since her adolescence at the Polyvalente de Cabano, she committed herself to many social and sporting activities, quickly developing a strong team spirit and a desire to help others.

    source ↗

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
78%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 40.9%
  • PQ 36.7%
  • PCQ 11.5%
  • PLQ 8.2%
  • QS 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ PLQ
HereRivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques 40.9%36.7%11.5%8.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 20.3% +20.6 30.1% +6.7 13.2% −1.7 27.2% −18.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
34.5 pts
Turnout
68.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amélie Dionne Elected CAQ 18,183 52.1 —
Félix Rioux PQ 6,141 17.6 —
Myriam Lapointe-Gagnon QS 5,102 14.6 —
Louise Moreault PCQ 3,937 11.3 —
Louis Bellemare PLQ 1,388 4.0 —
Carole Sierpien Other 174 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026