Riding profile

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
38%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 34.0%

    Amélie Dionne incumbent

  • PQ 28.7%

    Ariane Boyer

  • PCQ 17.1%

    Louise Moreault

  • QLP 12.6%

    Karine Malenfant

  • QS 7.1%

    Pierre-Erik Isabelle

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereRivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques 34.0%28.7%17.1%12.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +12.7 27.9% +0.8 16.1% +1.0 23.4% −10.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Amélie Dionne

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Amélie Dionne

    Amélie Dionne

    A proud resident of the riding of Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata for as long as she can remember, Amélie knows her community's issues very well. Involved in many community organizations, member of several boards of directors and formerly a municipal councillor, she is driven by her desire to develop the region economically.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Carole Sierpien

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Louise Moreault

    Louise Moreault

    Native of Notre-Dame-du-Lac and from a family of six children, Louise grew up in an agricultural setting where family values, respect, and responsibility held a central place. Very involved since her adolescence at the Polyvalente de Cabano, she committed herself to many social and sporting activities, quickly developing a strong team spirit and a desire to help others.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Ariane Boyer

    Ariane Boyer

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Karine Malenfant

    Karine Malenfant

    Karine Malenfant holds a UQAM business-administration degree. She worked in tourism and event management, directed Collectivités écologiques Bas-Saint-Laurent and chaired the regional environmental council. She headed the Rivière-du-Loup MRC Chamber of Commerce from 2014 to 2018, then the Quebec Games Final organizing committee from 2018; the 2023 event welcomed 3,000 athletes and 2,200 volunteers and left a $550,000 legacy. She now joins the PLQ to serve her region. × I commit to voting for Karine Malenfant as member for Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata-Témiscouata-les-basques

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Pierre-Erik Isabelle

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
34.5 pts
Turnout
68.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amélie Dionne Elected CAQ 18,183 52.1 —
Félix Rioux PQ 6,141 17.6 —
Myriam Lapointe-Gagnon QS 5,102 14.6 —
Louise Moreault PCQ 3,937 11.3 —
Louis Bellemare QLP 1,388 4.0 —
Carole Sierpien Other 174 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026