Riding profile

Matane-Matapédia-Mitis

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Matane-Matapédia-Mitis: a safe seat for the PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
57.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 69.1%

    Pascal Bérubé incumbent

  • CAQ 11.2%

    Henry Maclaren

  • PCQ 10.0%

    Patrice Caron

  • QLP 6.6%

    André Côté

  • QS 2.7%

    Gabriel Plante

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereMatane-Matapédia-Mitis 69.1%11.2%10.0%6.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +41.2 21.3% −10.1 16.1% −6.2 23.4% −16.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Matane-Matapédia-Mitis, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 69% vote share, against 11% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pascal Bérubé

Sits with PQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Pascal Bérubé

    Pascal Bérubé

    First elected in 2007, Pascal Bérubé has been re-elected continuously since, demonstrating his strong roots in his region. During his career, he has held several key positions, including deputy minister of Tourism from 2012 to 2014, parliamentary leader of the official opposition from 2018 to 2020, and parliamentary leader of the Parti Québécois from 2018 to 2021. A strong advocate for Quebec's independence and Quebec culture, Pascal Bérubé is recognized for his commitment to regional development and the protection of the French language. His political style, often described as passionate and combative, makes him a prominent figure on the Quebec political scene, particularly within the sovereigntist movement. "I never stopped believing in it. Quebec has everything it takes to form a free society shining everywhere in the world."

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Henry Maclaren

    Henry Maclaren

    Born in Calgary, Henry has lived in Quebec since he was three years old. From an English-speaking family, his parents sent him to French-language elementary school. This experience awakened in him a deep fascination with Quebec language, history and culture. He holds a bachelor's degree in history from Concordia University. He chose this field of study out of passion for Quebec's history and a desire to better understand where we come from. Throughout his career, Henry has worked in customer service, primarily in the tourism and cultural sectors. His time at Jardins de Métis made him fall in love with the Gaspésie region. Through his jobs and his many trips across Quebec, he has discovered the multiple riches of our nation, from mountains to the Saint Lawrence River, passing through the Matapédia River. His experience also includes a period in sales for a company specializing in artificial intelligence, as well as a role as a rowing coach. Today, he works in Montreal libraries while collaborating on various projects in the tourism and cultural sectors. Identified as an elite-level athlete by Aviron Québec, Henry is also pursuing a high-level athletic career. His development is followed by the Institut national du sport du Québec (INS), where he receives coaching for athletes of excellence.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Alexandre Mari0 Br0s Cossette

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Patrice Caron

    Patrice Caron

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    André Côté

    André Côté

    With nearly 40 years of experience in the pharmaceutical and medical sectors, André has devoted his career to the commercialization and development of solutions in the health field. Over the years, he has contributed to the realization and implementation of several technological projects, both in Quebec and abroad. His career also led him to serve in the Canadian Armed Forces reserve, where he served for eight years as a logistics officer. This experience allowed him to develop a strong sense of organization, rigour, and teamwork. André is also a man committed to his community. For several years, he has given his time to various humanitarian and charitable causes, notably as a volunteer with the Canadian Red Cross. × I commit to voting for André Côté as deputy in the constituency of Matane-Matapédia-Mitis

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Gabriel Plante

    Gabriel Plante

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
PQ
Margin
50.1 pts
Turnout
64.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pascal Bérubé Elected PQ 20,057 67.4
Jean-Sébastien Barriault CAQ 5,163 17.4
Alexandre Leblanc PCQ 2,316 7.8
Marie-Phare Boucher QS 1,450 4.9
Harley Ryan Lounsbury QLP 637 2.1
Madeleine Rose Other 123 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026