Riding profile
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis
The question
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis: a safe seat for the PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 57.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMatane-Matapédia-Mitis | 69.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +41.2 | 21.3% −10.1 | 16.1% −6.2 | 23.4% −16.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 69% vote share, against 11% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pascal Bérubé
Sits with PQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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PQ Incumbent
Pascal Bérubé
First elected in 2007, Pascal Bérubé has been re-elected continuously since, demonstrating his strong roots in his region. During his career, he has held several key positions, including deputy minister of Tourism from 2012 to 2014, parliamentary leader of the official opposition from 2018 to 2020, and parliamentary leader of the Parti Québécois from 2018 to 2021. A strong advocate for Quebec's independence and Quebec culture, Pascal Bérubé is recognized for his commitment to regional development and the protection of the French language. His political style, often described as passionate and combative, makes him a prominent figure on the Quebec political scene, particularly within the sovereigntist movement. "I never stopped believing in it. Quebec has everything it takes to form a free society shining everywhere in the world."
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CAQ Challenger
Henry Maclaren
Born in Calgary, Henry has lived in Quebec since he was three years old. From an English-speaking family, his parents sent him to French-language elementary school. This experience awakened in him a deep fascination with Quebec language, history and culture. He holds a bachelor's degree in history from Concordia University. He chose this field of study out of passion for Quebec's history and a desire to better understand where we come from. Throughout his career, Henry has worked in customer service, primarily in the tourism and cultural sectors. His time at Jardins de Métis made him fall in love with the Gaspésie region. Through his jobs and his many trips across Quebec, he has discovered the multiple riches of our nation, from mountains to the Saint Lawrence River, passing through the Matapédia River. His experience also includes a period in sales for a company specializing in artificial intelligence, as well as a role as a rowing coach. Today, he works in Montreal libraries while collaborating on various projects in the tourism and cultural sectors. Identified as an elite-level athlete by Aviron Québec, Henry is also pursuing a high-level athletic career. His development is followed by the Institut national du sport du Québec (INS), where he receives coaching for athletes of excellence.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Alexandre Mari0 Br0s Cossette
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PCQ Challenger
Patrice Caron
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QLP Challenger
André Côté
With nearly 40 years of experience in the pharmaceutical and medical sectors, André has devoted his career to the commercialization and development of solutions in the health field. Over the years, he has contributed to the realization and implementation of several technological projects, both in Quebec and abroad. His career also led him to serve in the Canadian Armed Forces reserve, where he served for eight years as a logistics officer. This experience allowed him to develop a strong sense of organization, rigour, and teamwork. André is also a man committed to his community. For several years, he has given his time to various humanitarian and charitable causes, notably as a volunteer with the Canadian Red Cross. × I commit to voting for André Côté as deputy in the constituency of Matane-Matapédia-Mitis
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QS Challenger
Gabriel Plante
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Bérubé Elected | PQ | 20,057 | 67.4 | — |
| Jean-Sébastien Barriault | CAQ | 5,163 | 17.4 | — |
| Alexandre Leblanc | PCQ | 2,316 | 7.8 | — |
| Marie-Phare Boucher | QS | 1,450 | 4.9 | — |
| Harley Ryan Lounsbury | QLP | 637 | 2.1 | — |
| Madeleine Rose | Other | 123 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026