Riding profile
Gaspé
The question
Gaspé: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 40.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGaspé | 56.1% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +28.2 | 21.3% −5.5 | 23.4% −9.6 | 16.1% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Gaspé, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 56% vote share, against 16% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent 
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
Rooted in Gaspésie, Stéphane Sainte-Croix was born in Cap-des-Rosiers and has been established in Gaspé for more than 25 years. As General Manager of Destination Gaspé Inc., he ensures the promotion of the city of Gaspé's product and tourism service offerings to national and international markets.
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Christian Pierry
source ↗ - PQ Challenger
Méganne Perry Mélançon
For the past four years, Méganne has toured Quebec as the National Spokesperson of the Parti Québécois. She championed our party's ideas and advanced reflection on several issues to build constructive dialogue with various groups in society.
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QLP Challenger 
Michel Marin
A Gaspésien, Michel worked for nearly 30 years in the forestry sector. He has been involved for several decades in sustainable development in the Gaspésie and has sat on the municipal council of Sainte-Anne-des-Monts. A candidate for the first time in the constituency of Gaspé in 2022, he subsequently held the position of regional organizer for the PLQ for all of Eastern Quebec, namely the Bas-Saint-Laurent, the Gaspésie and the Îles-de-la-Madeleine, the Ungava, the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, and the Côte-Nord. Father of three children, he also knows the realities of families in the region. He wishes to put his background at the service of the citizens and organizations of the constituency of Gaspé, so that their concerns and projects are not only heard, but defended with conviction and effectiveness. × I commit to voting for Michel Marin as deputy in the constituency of Gaspé
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QS Challenger _PETITE%20(1).webp)
Emmanuelle Babin
Emmanuelle Babin is the very image of engagement rooted in her community. Emmanuelle, or Manue to those who meet her, has always been driven by a desire to act for the world around her and defend people’s dignity. A former street worker in Quebec City, she saw the consequences of extreme poverty and the lack of access to social housing. It was through this work that she developed a simple but essential conviction: without social justice, there can be no living together. Today, as a cook on a scientific research vessel, she puts her good humour and dedication toward protecting the St. Lawrence and helping build a greener, fairer country.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane Sainte-Croix Elected | CAQ | 7,542 | 41.4 | — |
| Méganne Perry Mélançon | PQ | 6,832 | 37.5 | — |
| Yv Bonnier Viger | QS | 1,634 | 9.0 | — |
| Michel Marin | QLP | 1,255 | 6.9 | — |
| Pier-Luc Bouchard | PCQ | 956 | 5.3 | — |
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026