Riding profile
Gaspé
The question
Gaspé: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Gaspé, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 65% vote share, against 15% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent 
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
Rooted in Gaspésie, Stéphane Sainte-Croix was born in Cap-des-Rosiers and has been established in Gaspé for more than 25 years. As General Manager of Destination Gaspé Inc., he ensures the promotion of the city of Gaspé's product and tourism service offerings to national and international markets.
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PQ Challenger 
Méganne Perry Mélançon
For the past four years, Méganne has toured Quebec as the National Spokesperson of the Parti Québécois. She championed our party's ideas and advanced reflection on several issues to build constructive dialogue with various groups in society.
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 50.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PLQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGaspé | 65.0% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 5.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +35.0 | 20.3% −5.6 | 27.2% −15.6 | 13.2% −7.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane Sainte-Croix Elected | CAQ | 7,542 | 41.4 | — |
| Méganne Perry Mélançon | PQ | 6,832 | 37.5 | — |
| Yv Bonnier Viger | QS | 1,634 | 9.0 | — |
| Michel Marin | PLQ | 1,255 | 6.9 | — |
| Pier-Luc Bouchard | PCQ | 956 | 5.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026