Riding profile

René-Lévesque

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

René-Lévesque: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 42.8%

    Odette Lavigne

  • CAQ 29.1%

    Yves Montigny incumbent

  • PCQ 14.3%

    Esther Besrest

  • QLP 9.0%

    William Huynh-Jan

  • QS 4.4%

    Philippe C.-Boudreau

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereRené-Lévesque 42.8%29.1%14.3%9.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +14.9 21.3% +7.8 16.1% −1.8 23.4% −14.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

René-Lévesque, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yves Montigny

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Yves Montigny

    Yves Montigny

    Native of Baie-Comeau, Yves has been part of the community for as long as he can remember. A teacher by training and a family man, he has contributed to improving the quality of life for citizens in the riding for several years as mayor of Baie-Comeau.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Kevin Grenier

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Esther Besrest

    Esther Besrest

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Odette Lavigne

    Odette Lavigne

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger

    William Huynh-Jan

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Philippe C.-Boudreau

    With a long-standing civic commitment, Philippe C.-Boudreau is running as Québec solidaire’s candidate in René-Lévesque. A forestry technician and president of the ZIP Committee (priority intervention zone) on the north shore of the estuary, he draws on his field experience and community network to advance sustainable solutions to the region’s climate and socio-environmental challenges.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
37.8 pts
Turnout
59.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yves Montigny Elected CAQ 11,377 58.9 —
Jeff Dufour Tremblay PQ 4,087 21.2 —
Marie Renée Raymond PCQ 1,955 10.1 —
Audrey Givern-Héroux QS 1,459 7.6 —
Marc Duperron QLP 307 1.6 —
Richard Delisle Other 82 0.4 —
(Philippe) Gilles Babin Other 42 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026