Riding profile

Argenteuil

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Argenteuil: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
6.9
P(close race)
37%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 31.4%

    Pierre Nantel

  • CAQ 23.7%

    Julie-Andrée Numainville

  • QLP 18.7%

    Émilie Jutras

  • PCQ 17.5%

    Marie-France Lemay

  • QS 6.2%

    Pénéloppe Dagenais-Lavoie

  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereArgenteuil 31.4%23.7%18.7%17.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +3.5 21.3% +2.4 23.4% −4.7 16.1% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Argenteuil, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Agnès Grondin

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Julie-Andrée Numainville

    Julie-Andrée Numainville

    With 20 years of experience in philanthropy, Julie-Andrée Numainville has developed expertise in strategic development, lasting partnerships and high-impact projects.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Brigitte Roy

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Margaret Ethel Brunton

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marie-France Lemay

    Marie-France Lemay

    Mother of two teenagers and engaged resident of the Argenteuil region, Marie-France Lemay holds a degree in human resources management and has nearly twenty years of experience in this field, both within the health network and in the public transit sector. Established in the region with her family through an autoconstruction project, she is deeply rooted in her community and acutely aware of the realities faced by families and citizens in the riding.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Pierre Nantel

    Pierre Nantel

    A former federal member of Parliament, our candidate in Argenteuil, Pierre Nantel, has come to the conclusion that Canada is not only unreformable, but that independence is necessary for Quebec to reach its full potential. A tireless defender of Quebec culture and the French language, Pierre chose our party after observing that it is the only one capable of adequately supporting the cultural sector, putting an end to the decline of French, and restoring Quebecers’ confidence in their education system, their health system, and their social services. Settled for two years in Argenteuil, he wants to serve his new fellow citizens: “Two years living to the rhythm of the Rivière Rouge and contemplating the Ottawa River. Two years taking the pulse of families, many of whom need a government that will ensure their confidence is restored in our education system, our health system, and our social services. And, above all, two years hearing horror stories coming from Highway 50. The riding is very much in need of such a member who follows up on the issues that concern them and gives Argenteuil the love it needs.”

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Émilie Jutras

    Émilie Jutras

    Émilie Jutras, community agriculture coordinator for the Argenteuil RCM, is making the leap into provincial politics to join the ranks of the Quebec Liberal Party under the leadership of Charles Milliard. A mother of two young children, the QLP candidate in Argenteuil grew up in Lachute, where she still lives and works. This daily connection to her community—both as a resident and as a worker—deepens her understanding of the realities of the riding. In her role at the Argenteuil RCM, she works with families, schools, early childhood centers, community organizations, municipalities, farmers, and numerous local partners. This community-based work has allowed her to assess both the challenges faced by Argenteuil’s communities and their potential for development. Her commitment is driven by a desire to build connections, bring people together, and contribute to the development of her region. She advocates for a policy that is accessible, responsive, and grounded in the community, and she aims to put this approach to work for the benefit of families, businesses, and agriculture in Argenteuil.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Pénéloppe Dagenais-Lavoie

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
29.0 pts
Turnout
64.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Agnès Grondin Elected CAQ 14,725 45.1
François Girard PQ 5,291 16.2
Karim Elayoubi PCQ 4,807 14.7
Marcel Lachaine QS 3,523 10.8
Philippe LeBel QLP 3,325 10.2
Jean Lalonde Other 436 1.3
Luis Alvarez Other 429 1.3
Marie-Eve Milot Other 113 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026