Riding profile

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
86%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 30.5%

    Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

  • CAQ 29.5%

    Guy Veillette

  • PCQ 20.8%

    Charles Paquin

  • QLP 12.6%

    Laurent Bélisle

  • QS 5.9%

    Rébéka Fredette

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. CharlesbourgPCQ61 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereLaviolette–Saint-Maurice 30.5%29.5%20.8%12.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +2.6 21.3% +8.2 16.1% +4.7 23.4% −10.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Marie-Louise Tardif

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Guy Veillette

    Guy Veillette

    A lifelong Mauricien, Guy Veillette has lived in the constituency of Laviolette – Saint-Maurice for over 20 years. He is deeply rooted in the region, where his family has been established for generations. With a career spanning more than 30 years at the daily newspaper Le Nouvelliste, he notably covered municipal politics in Shawinigan for 15 years. Since 2020, he has been putting his knowledge of the field and his extensive network of contacts at the service of the population as a political attaché and head of the constituency office of Laviolette – Saint-Maurice. An experience that has allowed him to develop excellent listening skills, a strong sense of service, and an in-depth knowledge of the workings of the State and the issues affecting citizens. He holds a master's by coursework in labour relations, human resources, and organizational change from UQTR, as well as certificates in psychology, and a bachelor's degree in public communication, with complementary training in French and political science from Université Laval. His commitment to the region is concrete. He is notably involved with the Association des proches aidants de l'Énergie – Maison Gilles-Carle de Shawinigan and served on the executive of the Syndicat de l'information du Nouvelliste, where he also held the presidency for over 10 years.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Hugo Laperrière Piché

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-Patrick Berthiaume

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Charles Paquin

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

    Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

    We are proud to be able to count on the experience of Dr. Élodie Murphy-Gauthier and her fine knowledge of the health and social services sector. Settled in Shawinigan for nearly ten years, the family physician knows well the complex issues affecting Mauricie.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Laurent Bélisle

    Laurent Bélisle

    Laurent Bélisle, originally from Shawinigan, is a passionate communicator, a sportsman at heart, deeply rooted in his region and actively engaged in its development. A graduate in Business Management from Collège Boréal in Sudbury, with studies in law at the Université de Sherbrooke and a bachelor's degree in administration from UQTR, he quickly stood out through his student involvement. He participated in nine interuniversity competitions and held various leadership roles on several university committees. In Sudbury, he also served on the board of directors of the Jeunes gens d'affaires francophones du Nord de l'Ontario. Above all, Laurent is the father of two boys, for whom he wishes to help build a caring and prosperous future. His professional background reflects an entrepreneurial spirit and a great capacity for adaptation. He began in the tourism sector within a startup, then became an advertising representative at Le Nouvelliste, where he was notably involved in union negotiations with Groupe Capitales Médias. At the same time, he founded and directed for five years the non-profit Hockey Balle Mont-Carmel, reflecting his community engagement. Currently responsible for communications and marketing at Shalwin, an SME of 140 employees recognized in architecture, he puts his expertise at the service of local businesses. He also sits on the board of directors of the Chambre de commerce de Shawinigan and has been teaching Marketing at the Cegep since 2024. Dynamic and authentic, Laurent favors dialogue and places people at the heart of his actions, with clear priorities: supporting SMEs, improving access to care, and strengthening the community fabric. × I commit to voting for Laurent Bélisle as member for the constituency of Laviolette-Saint-Maurice

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Rébéka Fredette

    Rébéka Fredette

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
35.0 pts
Turnout
64.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Louise Tardif Elected CAQ 19,418 51.7
Pierre-David Tremblay PCQ 6,287 16.8
Pascal Bastarache PQ 6,010 16.0
France Lavigne QS 3,568 9.5
Kévin Nzoula-Mendome QLP 1,875 5.0
Jean-Patrick Berthiaume Other 137 0.4
Raoul Parent Other 126 0.3
Josée St-Georges Other 122 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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