Riding profile
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
The question
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 32% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Marie-Louise Tardif
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PLQ Challenger 
Laurent Bélisle
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
We are proud to be able to count on the experience of Dr. Élodie Murphy-Gauthier and her fine knowledge of the health and social services sector. Settled in Shawinigan for nearly ten years, the family physician knows well the complex issues affecting Mauricie.
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLaviolette–Saint-Maurice | 33.7% | 31.6% | 17.1% | 12.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +3.7 | 20.3% +11.3 | 13.2% +3.9 | 27.2% −14.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Louise Tardif Elected | CAQ | 19,418 | 51.7 | — |
| Pierre-David Tremblay | PCQ | 6,287 | 16.8 | — |
| Pascal Bastarache | PQ | 6,010 | 16.0 | — |
| France Lavigne | QS | 3,568 | 9.5 | — |
| Kévin Nzoula-Mendome | PLQ | 1,875 | 5.0 | — |
| Jean-Patrick Berthiaume | Other | 137 | 0.4 | — |
| Raoul Parent | Other | 126 | 0.3 | — |
| Josée St-Georges | Other | 122 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026