Riding profile
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
The question
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 86%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLaviolette–Saint-Maurice | 30.5% | 29.5% | 20.8% | 12.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +2.6 | 21.3% +8.2 | 16.1% +4.7 | 23.4% −10.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Marie-Louise Tardif
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Guy Veillette
A lifelong Mauricien, Guy Veillette has lived in the constituency of Laviolette – Saint-Maurice for over 20 years. He is deeply rooted in the region, where his family has been established for generations. With a career spanning more than 30 years at the daily newspaper Le Nouvelliste, he notably covered municipal politics in Shawinigan for 15 years. Since 2020, he has been putting his knowledge of the field and his extensive network of contacts at the service of the population as a political attaché and head of the constituency office of Laviolette – Saint-Maurice. An experience that has allowed him to develop excellent listening skills, a strong sense of service, and an in-depth knowledge of the workings of the State and the issues affecting citizens. He holds a master's by coursework in labour relations, human resources, and organizational change from UQTR, as well as certificates in psychology, and a bachelor's degree in public communication, with complementary training in French and political science from Université Laval. His commitment to the region is concrete. He is notably involved with the Association des proches aidants de l'Énergie – Maison Gilles-Carle de Shawinigan and served on the executive of the Syndicat de l'information du Nouvelliste, where he also held the presidency for over 10 years.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Hugo Laperrière Piché
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Jean-Patrick Berthiaume
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Charles Paquin
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PQ Challenger
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
We are proud to be able to count on the experience of Dr. Élodie Murphy-Gauthier and her fine knowledge of the health and social services sector. Settled in Shawinigan for nearly ten years, the family physician knows well the complex issues affecting Mauricie.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Laurent Bélisle
Laurent Bélisle, originally from Shawinigan, is a passionate communicator, a sportsman at heart, deeply rooted in his region and actively engaged in its development. A graduate in Business Management from Collège Boréal in Sudbury, with studies in law at the Université de Sherbrooke and a bachelor's degree in administration from UQTR, he quickly stood out through his student involvement. He participated in nine interuniversity competitions and held various leadership roles on several university committees. In Sudbury, he also served on the board of directors of the Jeunes gens d'affaires francophones du Nord de l'Ontario. Above all, Laurent is the father of two boys, for whom he wishes to help build a caring and prosperous future. His professional background reflects an entrepreneurial spirit and a great capacity for adaptation. He began in the tourism sector within a startup, then became an advertising representative at Le Nouvelliste, where he was notably involved in union negotiations with Groupe Capitales Médias. At the same time, he founded and directed for five years the non-profit Hockey Balle Mont-Carmel, reflecting his community engagement. Currently responsible for communications and marketing at Shalwin, an SME of 140 employees recognized in architecture, he puts his expertise at the service of local businesses. He also sits on the board of directors of the Chambre de commerce de Shawinigan and has been teaching Marketing at the Cegep since 2024. Dynamic and authentic, Laurent favors dialogue and places people at the heart of his actions, with clear priorities: supporting SMEs, improving access to care, and strengthening the community fabric. × I commit to voting for Laurent Bélisle as member for the constituency of Laviolette-Saint-Maurice
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QS Challenger
Rébéka Fredette
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Louise Tardif Elected | CAQ | 19,418 | 51.7 | — |
| Pierre-David Tremblay | PCQ | 6,287 | 16.8 | — |
| Pascal Bastarache | PQ | 6,010 | 16.0 | — |
| France Lavigne | QS | 3,568 | 9.5 | — |
| Kévin Nzoula-Mendome | QLP | 1,875 | 5.0 | — |
| Jean-Patrick Berthiaume | Other | 137 | 0.4 | — |
| Raoul Parent | Other | 126 | 0.3 | — |
| Josée St-Georges | Other | 122 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026