Riding profile

Berthier

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Berthier: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 38.2%

    Elsie Lefebvre

  • CAQ 28.1%

    Alex Gagné

  • PCQ 14.4%

    Steve Piché

  • QLP 10.3%

    Louis-Victor Sylvestre

  • QS 8.5%

    Amélie Drainville

  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereBerthier 38.2%28.1%14.4%10.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +10.3 21.3% +6.8 16.1% −1.7 23.4% −13.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Berthier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Caroline Proulx

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Alex Gagné

    Alex Gagné

    Born in Lanaudière, Alex Gagné has been involved in his community since the age of 15. At 18, he notably created the À deux pas de la réussite Foundation, an organization helping young people from disadvantaged backgrounds or with learning difficulties. After helping 4,000 young people, including several hundred in Matawinie and D’Autray, his involvement has helped raise nearly $2 million for educational perseverance in the region. Alex made the Top 30 list of the most influential Quebecers under 30, and was inducted as a member of the Order of Excellence in Education. Alex serves on the board of the Fondation des Samares and has actively helped organize several events in the region, including Les Doux jeudis in Saint-Alphonse-Rodriguez. Holding a master’s degree in business administration, he is particularly committed to entrepreneurship, sound management and youth participation.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Isabelle Lamothe

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-Pierre Lacombe

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Steve Piché

    Steve Piché

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Elsie Lefebvre

    Elsie Lefebvre

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Louis-Victor Sylvestre

    Louis-Victor Sylvestre

    A distinguished attorney and recognized expert in land-use planning and the realities of the agricultural sector, Louis-Victor has an insider’s understanding of regional economic development—the kind that is built in collaboration with entrepreneurs, producers, and local elected officials. Admitted to the bar in 1977, he completed his education with a master’s degree in urban planning and an MBA in finance. In private practice since 1982, he specializes in administrative law, environmental law, and land-use planning law, particularly in the agricultural sector. For more than 35 years, he also shared his expertise with the next generation as an adjunct professor of “Administrative Property Law” at the University of Montreal’s Faculty of Law, teaching graduate-level courses in the Diploma in Notarial Law program. His professional commitment has also led him to serve on several committees of the Quebec Bar Association. In particular, he served as a member of the Standing Committee on Environmental Law from 1995 to 2013, as well as the Committee on Administrative Law from 1994 to 2013. In 2002, he became a member of the Liaison Committee between the Bar Association and the Quebec Administrative Tribunal. A career marked by expertise, dedication, and a deep understanding of the issues affecting our regions.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Amélie Drainville

    Amélie Drainville

    For more than ten years, Amélie Drainville has actively campaigned to transform our relationship with nature and build a fairer Québec. A Québec solidaire candidate in 2022, Amélie is also a specialist in Québec’s food system, and she wants to transform our economy through the social economy. She is also the creator of the podcast La Gauchiste du fond du rang, where she gives progressives from every corner of Québec a voice. In 2026, Amélie is a strong voice for Berthier: attentive to local issues and connected to her community.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.1 pts
Turnout
67.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Caroline Proulx Elected CAQ 21,256 51.0
Julie Boucher PQ 8,682 20.8
Amélie Drainville QS 5,877 14.1
Benoit Primeau PCQ 4,585 11.0
Hassan Abdallah QLP 1,064 2.5
Claire Aubin Other 242 0.6
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026