Riding profile

Berthier

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Berthier: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Berthier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 43% vote share, against 32% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Caroline Proulx

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
11.0
P(close race)
11%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 43.1%
  • CAQ 32.1%
  • PCQ 10.3%
  • PLQ 7.8%
  • QS 6.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereBerthier 43.1%32.1%10.3%7.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +13.1 20.3% +11.9 13.2% −2.8 27.2% −19.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.1 pts
Turnout
67.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Caroline Proulx Elected CAQ 21,256 51.0 —
Julie Boucher PQ 8,682 20.8 —
Amélie Drainville QS 5,877 14.1 —
Benoit Primeau PCQ 4,585 11.0 —
Hassan Abdallah PLQ 1,064 2.5 —
Claire Aubin Other 242 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026