Riding profile

Papineau

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Papineau: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
48%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 28.4%

    Linda Gauthier

  • PQ 23.3%

    Isabelle Millette

  • QLP 19.6%

    Isabelle Sabourin

  • PCQ 18.2%

    Michel Kadri

  • QS 9.4%

    Benoit Renaud

  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ QLP PCQ
HerePapineau 28.4%23.3%19.6%18.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +7.1 27.9% −4.6 23.4% −3.8 16.1% +2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Papineau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 23% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu Lacombe

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Linda Gauthier

    Linda Gauthier

    Linda Gauthier's career path is closely tied to the Papineau riding, where she has lived for over 50 years. Raised on a family farm that dates back more than a century, she learned from a young age the importance of doing good work, perseverance, and mutual aid.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Michel Kadri

    Michel Kadri

    Michel Kadri is an entrepreneur established in Outaouais and owner of four automotive dealerships: Buckingham Chrysler, Buckingham Toyota, Buckingham Hyundai, and Vision Automobile Gatineau. He arrived in Canada at age 13 with only 20 dollars in his pocket and has built his career through perseverance, hard work, and entrepreneurial spirit. A candidate of the Parti conservateur du Québec in Papineau, he wishes to represent the citizens of his region, defend consumer choice for drivers, and put his business experience at the service of the community.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Isabelle Millette

    Isabelle Millette

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Isabelle Sabourin

    Isabelle Sabourin

    Passionate about regional development and deeply attached to the Outaouais, Isabelle Sabourin has spent more than 20 years advancing her region’s interests. She has held strategic roles at municipal, provincial and federal levels and, since 2021, has been director of strategic and regional issues in the office of Canada’s transport minister and government House leader. She was also political adviser at Quebec’s National Assembly and territorial director for Gatineau. A social-sciences graduate of UQO with advanced studies in regional development and change management, she is active with Breakfast Clubs and Festival Ripon Trad and wants to serve Papineau’s citizens. × I commit to voting for Isabelle Sabourin as member for Papineau

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Benoit Renaud

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
39.0 pts
Turnout
59.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-34.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Lacombe Elected CAQ 19,791 52.8 —
Marie-Claude Latourelle QS 5,164 13.8 —
Marc Carrière PCQ 4,970 13.3 —
Audrey-Ann Chicoine PQ 3,834 10.2 —
Wittlyn Kate Semervil QLP 3,151 8.4 —
Melissa Arbour Other 450 1.2 —
Cédric Brazeau Other 104 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026