Riding profile

Papineau

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Papineau: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Papineau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu Lacombe

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Linda Gauthier

    Linda Gauthier

    Linda Gauthier's career path is closely tied to the Papineau riding, where she has lived for over 50 years. Raised on a family farm that dates back more than a century, she learned from a young age the importance of doing good work, perseverance, and mutual aid.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger

    Isabelle Sabourin

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Toss-up

Probability
82%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
93%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 26.0%
  • CAQ 23.9%
  • PQ 23.2%
  • PCQ 13.9%
  • QS 11.6%
  • Other 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ CAQ PQ PCQ
HerePapineau 26.0%23.9%23.2%13.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% −1.2 20.3% +3.6 30.1% −6.8 13.2% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
39.0 pts
Turnout
59.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-36.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Lacombe Elected CAQ 19,791 52.8 —
Marie-Claude Latourelle QS 5,164 13.8 —
Marc Carrière PCQ 4,970 13.3 —
Audrey-Ann Chicoine PQ 3,834 10.2 —
Wittlyn Kate Semervil PLQ 3,151 8.4 —
Melissa Arbour Other 450 1.2 —
Cédric Brazeau Other 104 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026