Riding profile

Hull

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Hull: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 35.7%

    Sacha Cannon

  • PQ 19.9%

    Paul Fauteux

  • CAQ 18.0%

    Suzanne Tremblay incumbent

  • QS 13.1%

    Mariève Forest

  • PCQ 11.1%

    Anne-Marie Couturier

  • Other 2.1%

    Danilo Velasquez Canadian Party of Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ CAQ QS
HereHull 35.7%19.9%18.0%13.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +12.3 27.9% −7.9 21.3% −3.3 9.6% +3.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Hull, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 36% vote share, against 20% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Suzanne Tremblay

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Suzanne Tremblay

    Suzanne Tremblay

    Well known for her strong involvement and determination to defend the interests of the community, Suzanne Tremblay is a woman of values and commitments. In addition to dedicating herself to enhancing the teaching profession, she stands out for her remarkable civic action, notably with the organization Équité Outaouais.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Danilo Velasquez

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Anne-Marie Couturier

    Anne-Marie Couturier

    For over twenty years, Anne-Marie has been deeply involved in the life of her community in the Hull sector of Gatineau. Driven by a strong sense of public service and civic engagement, she has always placed great importance on the well-being of families, seniors, and those who contribute every day to making their neighborhood thrive.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Paul Fauteux

    Paul Fauteux

    A diplomat for 20 years, Paul Fauteux was director general of Environment Canada's Climate Change Bureau and head of Canada's delegation in international climate negotiations from 2000 to 2004. He participated in negotiating more than 50 international agreements, then led the Lands Directorate of Indian and Northern Affairs Canada. He supports the PQ approach to Indigenous issues and wants Quebec to become the world's first country to gain independence in partnership with Indigenous peoples. He also served his Hull community through the board of Gîte-Ami, Gatineau's first emergency resource for people experiencing homelessness and social exclusion.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sacha Cannon

    Sacha Cannon

    Born in Hull and raised in Manoir-des-Trembles, Sacha Cannon joins the PLQ. Son of Lawrence Cannon, he holds an Ottawa law degree and a Sciences Po Paris master’s in transnational arbitration. A lawyer and tribunal secretary, he has worked on major international arbitrations and at the City of Gatineau and Tereposky & DeRose. Since February 2026 he has been policy director in the official opposition leader’s office and has taught law at the University of Ottawa since 2022. He seeks a young, rigorous voice for Hull. × I commit to voting for Sacha Cannon as member for Hull

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Mariève Forest

    Mariève Forest

    Originally from the Outaouais, Mariève is deeply involved in her community and works to build a fairer, more caring and inclusive world. A sociologist, professor and researcher, she has collaborated with community organizations in Quebec and the wider French-speaking world, governments and citizen groups to promote democratic participation, inclusion and the common good. Guided by values of social and ecological justice, she continues her commitment to a more equal and stronger Quebec. Her career reflects a constant desire to bring communities together and contribute actively to a more caring future.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
9.2 pts
Turnout
58.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Suzanne Tremblay Elected CAQ 11,060 34.6
Maryse Gaudreault QLP 8,276 25.9
Mathieu Perron-Dufour QS 6,623 20.8
Camille Pellerin-Forget PQ 3,122 9.8
Lise Couture PCQ 2,189 6.9
Rachid Jemmah Other 655 2.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026