Riding profile

Chapleau

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Chapleau: will CAQ lose this seat to PLQ?

Editorial read

Chapleau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 38% vote share, against 21% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mathieu Lévesque

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Mathieu Lévesque

    Mathieu Lévesque

    Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Chapleau in 2018, Mathieu Lévesque worked as a lawyer specializing in corporate and securities law. He also serves as Deputy Parliamentary Leader of the government.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Denis Charron

    Denis Charron

    Denis has dedicated his life to serving his community for over 25 years. An experienced manager, entrepreneur and deeply engaged citizen, he has always distinguished himself through his accessible approach, attentive listening and willingness to find concrete solutions to everyday challenges.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger
    Michel Langevin

    Michel Langevin

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 37.5%
  • PQ 21.4%
  • CAQ 17.6%
  • QS 11.2%
  • PCQ 11.2%
  • Other 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PQ CAQ QS
HereChapleau 37.5%21.4%17.6%11.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +10.4 30.1% −8.7 20.3% −2.6 8.3% +2.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
38.7 pts
Turnout
58.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Lévesque Elected CAQ 16,363 52.3 —
Assumpta Ndengeyingoma PLQ 4,259 13.6 —
Sabrina Labrecque-Boivin QS 4,129 13.2 —
Matthieu Kadri PCQ 3,161 10.1 —
Marisa Gutierrez PQ 3,033 9.7 —
Anne-Marie Meunier Other 267 0.8 —
Pierre Soublière Other 72 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026