Riding profile
Chapleau
The question
Chapleau: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
CAQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 84%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 95%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | QLP | PQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChapleau | 27.7% | 25.8% | 21.4% | 15.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +6.4 | 23.4% +2.4 | 27.9% −6.5 | 16.1% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Chapleau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mathieu Lévesque
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent
Mathieu Lévesque
Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Chapleau in 2018, Mathieu Lévesque worked as a lawyer specializing in corporate and securities law. He also serves as Deputy Parliamentary Leader of the government.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Olguine Michelle Louissaint
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Pierre Soublière
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Denis Charron
Denis has dedicated his life to serving his community for over 25 years. An experienced manager, entrepreneur and deeply engaged citizen, he has always distinguished himself through his accessible approach, attentive listening and willingness to find concrete solutions to everyday challenges.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Meixia Maltais
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Michel Langevin
A journalist by training and a career radio host, Michel Langevin is a well-known figure in the region. A leading figure at 104.7 Outaouais, he is known for his authenticity, his candor, and his willingness to listen. As host of the show Let the Outaouais Rise Up For several years now, Michel has accumulated more than 36 years of experience in the media, both in radio and television. Sensitive to human suffering and the realities faced by citizens, he has devoted much of his career to giving a voice to people facing difficult situations and to highlighting the region’s concerns. Throughout his career, he led teams for nearly 20 years and distinguished himself through his leadership, his approachability, and his ability to bring people together. He has also been active in the amateur and professional sports communities as a journalist and commentator. Deeply rooted in his community, Michel has been involved in several social causes, notably with the Fondation Santé Outaouais and the La Dame de Cœur lottery, an initiative that has supported hundreds of health-related projects throughout the Outaouais region. A hands-on leader with deep ties to his region, Michel Langevin now hopes to put his experience and dedication to work for the citizens of Chapleau. He intends to champion the concerns of families in the Outaouais with conviction and actively contribute to improving their quality of life.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Doryan Pansanel
Doryan Pansanel embodies a new generation of political engagement founded on proximity, attentiveness and concrete action. A political science student at the University of Ottawa, he has been involved for several years in political and community circles, convinced that politics must remain accessible and grounded in realities on the ground. The holder of a United Nations certificate in climate justice, he is particularly interested in the ecological transition, local development and collective well-being. Active in the cultural and digital-media sector as a content creator, and founder of a youth theatre troupe, he represents the Quebec of tomorrow, oriented toward the future, and advocates building a fairer and more sustainable society.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Lévesque Elected | CAQ | 16,363 | 52.3 | — |
| Assumpta Ndengeyingoma | QLP | 4,259 | 13.6 | — |
| Sabrina Labrecque-Boivin | QS | 4,129 | 13.2 | — |
| Matthieu Kadri | PCQ | 3,161 | 10.1 | — |
| Marisa Gutierrez | PQ | 3,033 | 9.7 | — |
| Anne-Marie Meunier | Other | 267 | 0.8 | — |
| Pierre Soublière | Other | 72 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026