Riding profile

Chapleau

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Chapleau: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 27.7%

    Mathieu Lévesque incumbent

  • QLP 25.8%

    Michel Langevin

  • PQ 21.4%

    Meixia Maltais

  • PCQ 15.4%

    Denis Charron

  • QS 8.7%

    Doryan Pansanel

  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ QLP PQ PCQ
HereChapleau 27.7%25.8%21.4%15.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +6.4 23.4% +2.4 27.9% −6.5 16.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chapleau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu Lévesque

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Mathieu Lévesque

    Mathieu Lévesque

    Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Chapleau in 2018, Mathieu Lévesque worked as a lawyer specializing in corporate and securities law. He also serves as Deputy Parliamentary Leader of the government.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Olguine Michelle Louissaint

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Pierre Soublière

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  • PCQ Challenger
    Denis Charron

    Denis Charron

    Denis has dedicated his life to serving his community for over 25 years. An experienced manager, entrepreneur and deeply engaged citizen, he has always distinguished himself through his accessible approach, attentive listening and willingness to find concrete solutions to everyday challenges.

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  • PQ Challenger
    Meixia Maltais

    Meixia Maltais

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  • QLP Challenger
    Michel Langevin

    Michel Langevin

    A journalist by training and a career radio host, Michel Langevin is a well-known figure in the region. A leading figure at 104.7 Outaouais, he is known for his authenticity, his candor, and his willingness to listen. As host of the show Let the Outaouais Rise Up For several years now, Michel has accumulated more than 36 years of experience in the media, both in radio and television. Sensitive to human suffering and the realities faced by citizens, he has devoted much of his career to giving a voice to people facing difficult situations and to highlighting the region’s concerns. Throughout his career, he led teams for nearly 20 years and distinguished himself through his leadership, his approachability, and his ability to bring people together. He has also been active in the amateur and professional sports communities as a journalist and commentator. Deeply rooted in his community, Michel has been involved in several social causes, notably with the Fondation Santé Outaouais and the La Dame de Cœur lottery, an initiative that has supported hundreds of health-related projects throughout the Outaouais region. A hands-on leader with deep ties to his region, Michel Langevin now hopes to put his experience and dedication to work for the citizens of Chapleau. He intends to champion the concerns of families in the Outaouais with conviction and actively contribute to improving their quality of life.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Doryan Pansanel

    Doryan Pansanel

    Doryan Pansanel embodies a new generation of political engagement founded on proximity, attentiveness and concrete action. A political science student at the University of Ottawa, he has been involved for several years in political and community circles, convinced that politics must remain accessible and grounded in realities on the ground. The holder of a United Nations certificate in climate justice, he is particularly interested in the ecological transition, local development and collective well-being. Active in the cultural and digital-media sector as a content creator, and founder of a youth theatre troupe, he represents the Quebec of tomorrow, oriented toward the future, and advocates building a fairer and more sustainable society.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
38.7 pts
Turnout
58.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-36.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Lévesque Elected CAQ 16,363 52.3
Assumpta Ndengeyingoma QLP 4,259 13.6
Sabrina Labrecque-Boivin QS 4,129 13.2
Matthieu Kadri PCQ 3,161 10.1
Marisa Gutierrez PQ 3,033 9.7
Anne-Marie Meunier Other 267 0.8
Pierre Soublière Other 72 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026