Riding profile

Abitibi-Est

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Abitibi-Est: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Abitibi-Est, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 24% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pierre Dufour

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.2%
  • PLQ 23.7%
  • CAQ 23.5%
  • PCQ 12.3%
  • QS 2.5%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PLQ CAQ PCQ
HereAbitibi-Est 36.2%23.7%23.5%12.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +6.1 27.2% −3.5 20.3% +3.2 13.2% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
32.5 pts
Turnout
62.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pierre Dufour Elected CAQ 9,762 47.2 —
Jean-Maurice Matte PLQ 3,044 14.7 —
Benjamin Gingras QS 2,838 13.7 —
Jacline Rouleau PQ 2,565 12.4 —
Maxym Perron-Tellier PCQ 2,486 12.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026