Riding profile
Abitibi-Est
The question
Abitibi-Est: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 95%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 86%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | QLP | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAbitibi-Est | 28.0% | 24.9% | 22.2% | 16.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +0.1 | 23.4% +1.5 | 21.3% +0.9 | 16.1% −0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Abitibi-Est, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Pierre Dufour
Sits with Independent
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
QLP Incumbent 
Pierre Dufour
A well-known figure in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Pierre Dufour has devoted his career to regional economic development and public service. MNA for Abitibi-Est since 2018, he was Minister of Forests, Wildlife and Parks and minister responsible for the region and Nord-du-Québec. Before politics he led regional development, tourism and community organizations for more than 25 years. He now continues his public commitment with the PLQ. × I commit to voting for Pierre Dufour as member for Abitibi-Est
source ↗ -
CAQ Challenger 
Manon Barbe
Originally from Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Manon Barbe is an experienced manager and entrepreneur who knows her region’s realities well. She has devoted most of her career to the early childhood sector, notably by defending the interests of those who work in it. Trained in human resources management and management at the Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, she is co-founder of Cible Petite Enfance, a company that helps develop skills in the early childhood sector through continuing education, resources and tools adapted to the realities of the field. A committed, community-minded woman with practical experience, Manon also served as president of the Regroupement des CPE de l’Abitibi-Témiscamingue et du Nord-du-Québec. In that role, she represented the network before the government on issues related to family policies, CPE funding and childcare services.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Christian Savard
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Jean-Philip Girard
source ↗ - PQ Challenger
Stéphane Tremblay
A graduate of Cégep de Sherbrooke in social sciences, Stéphane Tremblay also studied psychoeducation and secondary teaching at UQAT. He worked as a miner at Richmont’s Beaufor division, then in health, safety and training for Richmont and Agnico-Eagle. He is now health and safety superintendent at Machines Roger International, after working at IAMGOLD’s Westwood mine. He wants to carry Abitibi’s voice.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger 2x%20(3).webp)
Sara Germain
A communications professional and UQAM doctoral student, Sara Germain has nearly ten years of experience in community and international-solidarity organizations.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Dufour Elected | CAQ | 9,762 | 47.2 | — |
| Jean-Maurice Matte | QLP | 3,044 | 14.7 | — |
| Benjamin Gingras | QS | 2,838 | 13.7 | — |
| Jacline Rouleau | PQ | 2,565 | 12.4 | — |
| Maxym Perron-Tellier | PCQ | 2,486 | 12.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026