Riding profile

Gatineau

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Gatineau: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
13%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 32.1%

    David Logue

  • CAQ 24.9%

    William Robertson

  • PQ 19.4%

    Raphaël Déry

  • PCQ 15.6%

    Bertin Aboussou

  • QS 6.9%

    Emmanuelle Tremblay

  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP CAQ PQ PCQ
HereGatineau 32.1%24.9%19.4%15.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +8.7 21.3% +3.6 27.9% −8.5 16.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Gatineau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Robert Bussière

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    William Robertson

    William Robertson

    William Robertson's career within the highest government institutions testifies to a deep understanding of political issues. Recognized for his great listening capacity, analysis and ability to develop concrete solutions, he held until very recently the position of Director of Relations with MNA in the Office of Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Bertin Aboussou

    Bertin Aboussou

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Raphaël Déry

    Raphaël Déry

    A lawyer educated at the University of Ottawa, Raphaël Déry founded and leads the Coopérative de solidarité de la Cité des Outaouais and the Fédération intercoopérative en habitation de l'Ouest du Québec. He wants to build bridges with Gatineau citizens, both to win support for a Parti Québécois government and to foster constructive dialogue about Quebec independence. He says Outaouais has too long been neglected by successive governments and, with its unique geography, particular labour market and persistent urgent needs, deserves sustained attention. He is ready to carry this voice to the National Assembly and serve the population with conviction.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    David Logue

    David Logue

    Born in Maniwaki, David Logue is the son of a French-Canadian mother and an Indigenous-Irish father, a member of the Kitigan Zibi Anishinabeg Nation. He is himself a registered member of the Kitigan Zibi community. Bilingual and deeply rooted in the Outaouais, he has more than 27 years of financial-sector experience and is currently general manager of a Desjardins caisse in the Gatineau riding. A graduate of Algonquin College with business-administration training from the Université du Québec à Hull, he sits on several boards, including the Maniwaki-Gatineau Indigenous Friendship Centre and Ski à l’école Outaouais. × I commit to voting for David Logue as member for Gatineau

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Emmanuelle Tremblay

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
58.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Robert Bussière Elected CAQ 17,055 46.7 —
Caryl Green QLP 7,137 19.6 —
Laura Avalos QS 4,415 12.1 —
Joëlle Jammal PCQ 3,927 10.8 —
Raphaël Déry PQ 3,542 9.7 —
Danilo Velasquez Other 327 0.9 —
Robert Dupuis Other 88 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026