Riding profile
Gatineau
The question
Gatineau: will CAQ lose this seat to PLQ?
Editorial read
Gatineau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 19% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Robert Bussière
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger 
William Robertson
William Robertson's career within the highest government institutions testifies to a deep understanding of political issues. Recognized for his great listening capacity, analysis and ability to develop concrete solutions, he held until very recently the position of Director of Relations with MNA in the Office of Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger 
David Logue
source ↗
Current forecast
PLQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PQ | PCQ | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGatineau | 47.5% | 18.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +20.3 | 30.1% −11.2 | 13.2% −1.5 | 20.3% −9.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bussière Elected | CAQ | 17,055 | 46.7 | — |
| Caryl Green | PLQ | 7,137 | 19.6 | — |
| Laura Avalos | QS | 4,415 | 12.1 | — |
| Joëlle Jammal | PCQ | 3,927 | 10.8 | — |
| Raphaël Déry | PQ | 3,542 | 9.7 | — |
| Danilo Velasquez | Other | 327 | 0.9 | — |
| Robert Dupuis | Other | 88 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026