Riding profile

Pontiac

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Pontiac: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 55.0%

    André Fortin incumbent

  • PCQ 15.3%

    Osmar Martinez

  • CAQ 12.3%

    Mariana Mefleh

  • PQ 9.3%

    Marcela Cazas

  • QS 4.2%

    Bianca Baldo

  • Other 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PCQ CAQ PQ
HerePontiac 55.0%15.3%12.3%9.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +31.6 16.1% −0.9 21.3% −9.0 27.9% −18.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Pontiac, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 55% vote share, against 15% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

André Fortin

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    André Fortin

    André Fortin

    Leader of the Official Opposition

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Mariana Mefleh

    Mariana Mefleh

    For over seven years, Mariana Mefleh has worked alongside elected officials of the Quebec government, leveraging her expertise in strategic analysis, complex issue management, and public communication. Political advisor to the Member for Hull since February 2024, she ensures a close link between citizens, sector partners, and government bodies to advance files through an approach based on consultation.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Osmar Martinez

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Marcela Cazas

    Marcela Cazas

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Bianca Baldo

    Bianca Baldo

    Bianca Baldo is a lawyer, public-policy professional and community organizer rooted in Gatineau. With more than 20 years of experience, she has devoted her career to social justice and defending the rights of people seeking equity, including racialized communities, the 2SLGBTQIA+ community, people with disabilities, Indigenous, Francophone and Anglophone communities, and local organizations and stakeholders. A graduate of McGill University and the University of Ottawa, she has worked in government and community settings, developing equity programs and conducting consultations with communities.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
19.0 pts
Turnout
53.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
André Fortin Elected QLP 12,477 43.7 —
Corinne Canuel-Jolicoeur CAQ 7,056 24.7 —
Terrence Watters PCQ 3,118 10.9 —
Mike Owen Sebagenzi QS 2,935 10.3 —
Jolaine Paradis-Châteauneuf PQ 1,887 6.6 —
Pierre Cyr Other 616 2.2 —
William Twolan Other 475 1.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026