Riding profile

Pontiac

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · rest

The question

Pontiac: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Editorial read

Pontiac, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 64% vote share, against 12% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

André Fortin

Sits with PLQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Incumbent
    André Fortin

    André Fortin

    Leader of the Official Opposition

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Mariana Mefleh

    Mariana Mefleh

    For over seven years, Mariana Mefleh has worked alongside elected officials of the Quebec government, leveraging her expertise in strategic analysis, complex issue management, and public communication. Political advisor to the Member for Hull since February 2024, she ensures a close link between citizens, sector partners, and government bodies to advance files through an approach based on consultation.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 64.1%
  • PCQ 12.3%
  • PQ 8.8%
  • QS 6.9%
  • Other 4.6%
  • CAQ 3.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PCQ PQ QS
HerePontiac 64.1%12.3%8.8%6.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +36.9 13.2% −0.9 30.1% −21.3 8.3% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PLQ
Margin
19.0 pts
Turnout
53.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+32.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
André Fortin Elected PLQ 12,477 43.7 —
Corinne Canuel-Jolicoeur CAQ 7,056 24.7 —
Terrence Watters PCQ 3,118 10.9 —
Mike Owen Sebagenzi QS 2,935 10.3 —
Jolaine Paradis-Châteauneuf PQ 1,887 6.6 —
Pierre Cyr Other 616 2.2 —
William Twolan Other 475 1.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026