Riding profile
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
The question
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 52% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Daniel Bernard
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger 
Béatrice Déry
A communications and public affairs professional, Béatrice Déry embodies a new generation of engaged leaders. Holder of a bachelor's degree in business administration — with expertise in management — from Laval University, she distinguished herself through the excellence of her academic path, which earned her several distinctions.
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PLQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | 51.5% | 25.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +21.5 | 20.3% +5.6 | 27.2% −18.3 | 13.2% −5.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bernard Elected | CAQ | 12,975 | 45.2 | — |
| Émilise Lessard-Therrien | QS | 8,890 | 30.9 | — |
| Jean-François Vachon | PQ | 3,232 | 11.3 | — |
| Robert Daigle | PCQ | 2,202 | 7.7 | — |
| Arnaud Warolin | PLQ | 1,255 | 4.4 | — |
| Chantal Corswarem | Other | 178 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026