Riding profile

Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 33.1%

    Diane Dallaire

  • CAQ 24.2%

    Béatrice Déry

  • QS 19.3%

    France Marion

  • PCQ 11.8%

    Francis Lapointe

  • QLP 11.1%

    Leanne Loney

  • Other 0.5%

    Samuel Touchette Parti nul

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QS PCQ
HereRouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 33.1%24.2%19.3%11.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +5.2 21.3% +2.9 9.6% +9.7 16.1% −4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 24% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Daniel Bernard

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Béatrice Déry

    Béatrice Déry

    A communications and public affairs professional, Béatrice Déry embodies a new generation of engaged leaders. Holder of a bachelor's degree in business administration — with expertise in management — from Laval University, she distinguished herself through the excellence of her academic path, which earned her several distinctions.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Samuel Touchette

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Francis Lapointe

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Diane Dallaire

    Diane Dallaire

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger

    Leanne Loney

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    France Marion

    France Marion

    A former mayor of Latulipe-et-Gaboury, elementary-school teacher and union activist, France Marion has lived in Témiscamingue for more than 30 years.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
14.2 pts
Turnout
64.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Daniel Bernard Elected CAQ 12,975 45.2 —
Émilise Lessard-Therrien QS 8,890 30.9 —
Jean-François Vachon PQ 3,232 11.3 —
Robert Daigle PCQ 2,202 7.7 —
Arnaud Warolin QLP 1,255 4.4 —
Chantal Corswarem Other 178 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026