Riding profile

Abitibi-Ouest

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Abitibi-Ouest: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 42.7%

    Sébastien D’Astous

  • CAQ 20.7%

    Suzanne Blais incumbent

  • PCQ 13.8%

    Daniel Guillemette

  • QLP 13.4%
  • QS 8.9%

    Joanie Bolduc

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereAbitibi-Ouest 42.7%20.7%13.8%13.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +14.8 21.3% −0.6 16.1% −2.3 23.4% −10.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Abitibi-Ouest, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 43% vote share, against 21% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Suzanne Blais

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Suzanne Blais

    Suzanne Blais

    A well-known businesswoman in Amos and an accomplished volunteer, Suzanne Blais is from Taschereau. Elected as the Member of Parliament for Abitibi-Ouest in 2018, her experience and involvement in government allowed her to contribute to the region's economic prosperity and make a difference at the community and social level as a member of the Health and Social Services Commission.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Daniel Guillemette

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sébastien D’Astous

    Sébastien D’Astous

    With about ten years of experience as mayor of Amos, Sébastien is well placed to understand the issues concerning the citizens of the Abitibi-Ouest constituency. If he is running to become a member of the National Assembly, it is because he wishes to help build a better model of regional economic development. For our candidate, the time has come for Quebec to give itself the means to decide for itself and by itself by becoming a normal country, as so many others have done before us. "I am a manager and an engineer by training. I have always sought to combine economic development, innovation, and collective responsibility, with respect for workers, communities, and the environment. I firmly believe that we are not heading in the right direction and that the Quebec government's actions are marked by too much improvisation. The intellectual rigour and sensitivity to the regions that our leader has always demonstrated align with my convictions and my public commitment. It is time for us to have a government that respects people and the regions and that knows where it is going. We deserve that!"

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Joanie Bolduc

    An electrical engineer specializing in grid testing at Hydro-Québec and active in her union, Joanie Bolduc is also pursuing studies in economics.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.0 pts
Turnout
63.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Suzanne Blais Elected CAQ 10,399 46.8 —
Samuel Doré PQ 4,619 20.8 —
Alexis Lapierre QS 3,623 16.3 —
François Vigneault PCQ 2,293 10.3 —
Guy Bourgeois QLP 1,153 5.2 —
Jonathan Blanchette Other 159 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026