Riding profile

Ungava

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Ungava: will CAQ lose this seat to PLQ?

Editorial read

Ungava, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 45% vote share, against 38% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Denis Lamothe

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Challenger
    Sonia Caron

    Sonia Caron

    Our candidate is an experienced manager with over 20 years of experience in the education network. She currently directs the Centre for Vocational Training in Baie-James.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 45.2%
  • PQ 37.6%
  • PCQ 10.9%
  • CAQ 3.0%
  • Other 1.9%
  • QS 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PQ PCQ CAQ
HereUngava 45.2%37.6%10.9%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +18.1 30.1% +7.5 13.2% −2.2 20.3% −17.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
12.0 pts
Turnout
30.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Denis Lamothe Elected CAQ 3,132 36.3 —
Maïtée Labrecque-Saganash QS 2,092 24.2 —
Tunu Napartuk PLQ 1,571 18.2 —
Christine Moore PQ 1,084 12.6 —
Nancy Lalancette PCQ 756 8.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026