Riding profile

Ungava

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Ungava: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 27.8%

    Sonia Caron

  • QLP 26.8%

    Sandrine Rioux

  • CAQ 18.9%

    Amélie Béchard

  • PCQ 15.5%

    Marc Damant

  • QS 9.5%

    Antoine Côté

  • Other 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QLP CAQ PCQ
HereUngava 27.8%26.8%18.9%15.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% −0.1 23.4% +3.4 21.3% −2.4 16.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ungava, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Denis Lamothe

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger

    Amélie Béchard

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Marc Damant

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sonia Caron

    Sonia Caron

    Our candidate is an experienced manager with over 20 years of experience in the education network. She currently directs the Centre for Vocational Training in Baie-James.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sandrine Rioux

    Sandrine Rioux

    A professional in strategic marketing, business technologies and digital transformation, Sandrine Rioux has supported Quebec organizations in various sectors throughout her career in carrying out modernization and development projects. This diversity of experience has given her great adaptability, a strong understanding of complex issues and a decidedly solution-oriented approach. Originally from Chibougamau, Sandrine Rioux is deeply attached to Ungava and Nord-du-Québec. She grew up in this region, developed her sense of community there and gained a practical understanding of northern realities, including access to services, housing, the cost of living and economic development. She also knows the territory's distinguishing strengths: resilience, solidarity and the richness of its communities. Holder of a bachelor's degree in business administration, information systems management, she wants to put her expertise at the service of modern, sustainable and inclusive development. Convinced that the best decisions are made with the citizens and communities concerned, she believes Ungava's future must take into account the realities and aspirations of Nunavik, Eeyou Istchee and Jamésie. Active as a citizen since her youth and involved with the Quebec Liberal Party for several years, Sandrine Rioux carries a vision based on a strong economy, accessible public services, an affirmed Quebec identity and greater power to act for the regions. She now wants to put her energy, experience and attachment to Nord-du-Québec at the service of Ungava's citizens. × I commit to voting for Sandrine Rioux as member for the riding of Ungava

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Antoine Côté

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
12.0 pts
Turnout
30.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Denis Lamothe Elected CAQ 3,132 36.3 —
Maïtée Labrecque-Saganash QS 2,092 24.2 —
Tunu Napartuk QLP 1,571 18.2 —
Christine Moore PQ 1,084 12.6 —
Nancy Lalancette PCQ 756 8.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026