Riding profile
Lac-Saint-Jean
The question
Lac-Saint-Jean: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Lac-Saint-Jean, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 53% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Eric Girard
Sits with CAQ
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLac-Saint-Jean | 53.1% | 25.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +23.0 | 20.3% +5.0 | 13.2% −1.9 | 27.2% −19.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Girard Elected | CAQ | 14,798 | 51.5 | — |
| William Fradette | PQ | 7,367 | 25.6 | — |
| Luc Martel | PCQ | 3,270 | 11.4 | — |
| Elsa Moulin | QS | 2,178 | 7.6 | — |
| Tricia Murray | PLQ | 867 | 3.0 | — |
| Martin Lavoie | Other | 156 | 0.5 | — |
| Chantale Villeneuve | Other | 116 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026