Riding profile

Lac-Saint-Jean

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Lac-Saint-Jean: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 46.4%

    William Fradette

  • CAQ 22.8%

    François Cormier

  • PCQ 14.6%

    Tommy Gauthier

  • QLP 11.3%

    Anne Paquet

  • QS 4.4%

    Antoine Bessette

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereLac-Saint-Jean 46.4%22.8%14.6%11.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +18.5 21.3% +1.5 16.1% −1.6 23.4% −12.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Lac-Saint-Jean, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 46% vote share, against 23% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eric Girard

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    François Cormier

    François Cormier

    Originally from Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, François Cormier has pursued his professional career in the Lac-Saint-Jean riding since 2015. A teacher of accounting and management at Collège d’Alma and a member of the institution’s board of directors, François Cormier is also passionate about entrepreneurship and is committed to passing on his knowledge to the next generation. Known in the business community, notably for his involvement with OSEntreprendre and his role as a mentor in the Mentorat Saguenay network, François Cormier wishes to put his experience and expertise at the service of the citizens of Lac-Saint-Jean, focusing in particular on youth, professional development and economic development.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Stefany Tremblay

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Sylvain Tremblay

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Tommy Gauthier

    Tommy Gauthier

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    William Fradette

    William Fradette

    A lawyer by training and former journalist at Journal Le Lac-St-Jean, William Fradette was, until very recently, director of the research service of the Parti Québécois parliamentary wing. A candidate for the Parti Québécois in the Lac-Saint-Jean riding in the 2018 and 2022 elections, he was also a political advisor to the Lac-Saint-Jean member of Parliament, Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, from 2019 to 2023. William is running as a candidate in his home riding, Lac-Saint-Jean, because it is where he has always lived and where he wants to commit himself. "With the sincerity, loyalty and dedication I have always shown, I intend to run a campaign on ideas that will shape our future, namely defending our region against centralization, putting the state at the service of its fundamental missions and delivering justice to a generation seeking its place in a world that is changing faster than ever."

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger

    Anne Paquet

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Antoine Bessette

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
25.9 pts
Turnout
67.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric Girard Elected CAQ 14,798 51.5 —
William Fradette PQ 7,367 25.6 —
Luc Martel PCQ 3,270 11.4 —
Elsa Moulin QS 2,178 7.6 —
Tricia Murray QLP 867 3.0 —
Martin Lavoie Other 156 0.5 —
Chantale Villeneuve Other 116 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026