Riding profile

Roberval

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Roberval: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 39.7%

    Isabelle Thibeault

  • CAQ 26.3%

    Yanick Baillargeon

  • PCQ 15.1%

    Pierre Gagné

  • QLP 14.4%

    Serge Bergeron

  • QS 4.1%

    Guillaume David

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereRoberval 39.7%26.3%15.1%14.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +11.8 21.3% +5.0 16.1% −1.1 23.4% −9.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Roberval, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nancy Guillemette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Yanick Baillargeon

    Yanick Baillargeon

    A resident of the Roberval riding for nearly 50 years, Yanick Baillargeon knows the region and its communities deeply. Elected mayor of La Doré in 2017, he has been prefect of the Domaine-du-Roy RCM for seven years, coordinating regional files and representing municipalities before various bodies. His diverse career took him from baking to trucking and then information-technology entrepreneurship before municipal politics, giving him a concrete view of local economic and professional realities. With a strong regional identity, he chaired Alliance forêt boréale, now Alliance des communautés forestières, which defends forest territories' interests. He also serves on the Conseil de gestion durable du Lac-Saint-Jean, the Régie des matières résiduelles du Lac-Saint-Jean and Accès-Transport's board. In La Doré, he is active with the Complexe sportif and Rallye des Loups.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Pierre Gagné

    Pierre Gagné

    An agricultural entrepreneur established in Girardville, Pierre Gagné took over the family farm at a young age, now known as Ferme Technord. Thanks to his innovative spirit, he has modernized his operations and diversified his activities, notably developing blueberry and grain cultivation. His path demonstrates his deep commitment to agriculture and the development of his region. Pierre wishes to represent the citizens of Roberval with proximity, pragmatism and determination. He advocates for concrete solutions to support agricultural producers, restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to homeownership, improve access to health care and reduce the fiscal and regulatory burden. He believes that a strong economy and dynamic regions are essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Isabelle Thibeault

    Isabelle Thibeault

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Serge Bergeron

    Serge Bergeron

    Born in Chicoutimi and a member of the Innu community of Mashteuiatsh, Serge Bergeron is a trained special-education teacher who wants to serve Roberval as a Liberal MNA. He holds a DEC in letters from Collège de Jonquière, a bachelor's degree in special education from UQAM and a master's in educational management and administration from Université de Sherbrooke, with further studies in addiction, personal and social education and educational administration. Passionate about education and knowledge transfer, especially for students with special needs, he spent most of his career in Quebec's education system: 13 years teaching special education at Montreal's school board, followed by management roles as assistant principal, principal of elementary and secondary schools and adult-education centres, and coordinator of a CSDM school group. He later became director general of the Pays-des-Bleuets school board. He was mayor of Roberval from 2021 to 2025, focusing on sustainable development, municipal services and community development.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Guillaume David

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
35.7 pts
Turnout
60.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nancy Guillemette Elected CAQ 15,017 56.2 —
Patrice Bouchard PQ 5,488 20.5 —
Samuel Gaudreault PCQ 3,038 11.4 —
Michaël Ottereyes QS 1,826 6.8 —
Maxim Lavoie QLP 1,217 4.5 —
Lynda Lalancette Other 141 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026