Riding profile

Roberval

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Roberval: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Roberval, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 46% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nancy Guillemette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 46.2%
  • CAQ 29.5%
  • PCQ 11.4%
  • PLQ 10.9%
  • QS 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereRoberval 46.2%29.5%11.4%10.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +16.1 20.3% +9.3 13.2% −1.8 27.2% −16.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
35.7 pts
Turnout
60.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nancy Guillemette Elected CAQ 15,017 56.2 —
Patrice Bouchard PQ 5,488 20.5 —
Samuel Gaudreault PCQ 3,038 11.4 —
Michaël Ottereyes QS 1,826 6.8 —
Maxim Lavoie PLQ 1,217 4.5 —
Lynda Lalancette Other 141 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026