Riding profile
Dubuc
The question
Dubuc: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDubuc | 37.1% | 29.5% | 15.2% | 11.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +9.2 | 21.3% +8.2 | 16.1% −1.0 | 23.4% −12.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Dubuc, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
François Tremblay
Sits with Independent
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Challenger
Marc Grandbois
A community-minded man politically committed to the vitality of the regions, Marc Grandbois has more than three decades of professional experience spanning the arts, business management, natural-resource exports and public service. He holds a bachelor’s degree in arts from Concordia University and is recognized for his professional rigour and strong business acumen. His varied career has led him to production-management positions, industrial project management and export brokerage, developing expertise in market development, procurement, logistics and team management. Alongside his career in industry and commerce, he has pursued a professional career as a painter since 1991, recognized throughout Canada and the United States. Drawing on his experience as senior political attaché for the Dubuc riding since 2023, Marc has direct knowledge of public administration, government issues and field work with citizens, organizations and businesses. Based in L’Anse-Saint-Jean, he knows the realities of the regions he champions, the value of rigorous work and the importance of reconciling economic development with cultural identity. Pragmatic, versatile and always attentive to his community, he wishes to put his leadership, deep understanding of international trade and cultural sensitivity at the service of riding residents to build an emancipated, strong and prosperous Quebec.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Joelle Lavallée
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PCQ Challenger
Catherine Morissette
From Chicoutimi-Nord and from an entrepreneurial family, Catherine is a woman deeply rooted in the values of hard work, perseverance and closeness to people. Mother within a blended family of three children and grandmother of two grandchildren, she places great importance on family and the human bonds that unite communities.
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PQ Challenger
Émile Simard
In recent years, Émile has distinguished himself through his commitment to youth, local organizations and the education sector. A high school teacher, he was president of the Parti Québécois National Youth Committee (CNJPQ) from 2023 to 2025 and co-spokesperson for our Party on student affairs. Originating from the region, Émile is convinced that Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean deserves a strong, authentic voice deeply rooted in its realities. He is running for office today to give back to his community and to defend Quebec's independence project. "Representing the people of our region is an immense privilege. I grew up here, studied here and built my roots here. I have always believed that citizen engagement is the best way to move our community forward. Today, I am taking a new step because I am convinced that our region deserves a strong, authentic voice deeply rooted in its realities. I also hope to be able to carry the voice of a whole new generation that wishes to take up the torch towards Quebec's independence," declared the candidate following his nomination.
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QLP Challenger Virginie Bouchard
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QS Challenger Ève Laguë
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Tremblay Elected | CAQ | 15,427 | 57.6 | — |
| Émile Simard | PQ | 4,699 | 17.6 | — |
| Tommy Pageau | PCQ | 2,956 | 11.0 | — |
| Andrée-Anne Brillant | QS | 2,833 | 10.6 | — |
| Berry Zinga Nkuni | QLP | 666 | 2.5 | — |
| Gilbert Simard | Other | 200 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026