Riding profile

Dubuc

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Dubuc: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 37.1%

    Émile Simard

  • CAQ 29.5%

    Marc Grandbois

  • PCQ 15.2%

    Catherine Morissette

  • QLP 11.3%

    Virginie Bouchard

  • QS 6.5%

    Ève Laguë

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereDubuc 37.1%29.5%15.2%11.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +9.2 21.3% +8.2 16.1% −1.0 23.4% −12.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Dubuc, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

François Tremblay

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Marc Grandbois

    Marc Grandbois

    A community-minded man politically committed to the vitality of the regions, Marc Grandbois has more than three decades of professional experience spanning the arts, business management, natural-resource exports and public service. He holds a bachelor’s degree in arts from Concordia University and is recognized for his professional rigour and strong business acumen. His varied career has led him to production-management positions, industrial project management and export brokerage, developing expertise in market development, procurement, logistics and team management. Alongside his career in industry and commerce, he has pursued a professional career as a painter since 1991, recognized throughout Canada and the United States. Drawing on his experience as senior political attaché for the Dubuc riding since 2023, Marc has direct knowledge of public administration, government issues and field work with citizens, organizations and businesses. Based in L’Anse-Saint-Jean, he knows the realities of the regions he champions, the value of rigorous work and the importance of reconciling economic development with cultural identity. Pragmatic, versatile and always attentive to his community, he wishes to put his leadership, deep understanding of international trade and cultural sensitivity at the service of riding residents to build an emancipated, strong and prosperous Quebec.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Joelle Lavallée

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Catherine Morissette

    Catherine Morissette

    From Chicoutimi-Nord and from an entrepreneurial family, Catherine is a woman deeply rooted in the values of hard work, perseverance and closeness to people. Mother within a blended family of three children and grandmother of two grandchildren, she places great importance on family and the human bonds that unite communities.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Émile Simard

    Émile Simard

    In recent years, Émile has distinguished himself through his commitment to youth, local organizations and the education sector. A high school teacher, he was president of the Parti Québécois National Youth Committee (CNJPQ) from 2023 to 2025 and co-spokesperson for our Party on student affairs. Originating from the region, Émile is convinced that Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean deserves a strong, authentic voice deeply rooted in its realities. He is running for office today to give back to his community and to defend Quebec's independence project. "Representing the people of our region is an immense privilege. I grew up here, studied here and built my roots here. I have always believed that citizen engagement is the best way to move our community forward. Today, I am taking a new step because I am convinced that our region deserves a strong, authentic voice deeply rooted in its realities. I also hope to be able to carry the voice of a whole new generation that wishes to take up the torch towards Quebec's independence," declared the candidate following his nomination.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger

    Virginie Bouchard

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Ève Laguë

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
40.0 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-32.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François Tremblay Elected CAQ 15,427 57.6
Émile Simard PQ 4,699 17.6
Tommy Pageau PCQ 2,956 11.0
Andrée-Anne Brillant QS 2,833 10.6
Berry Zinga Nkuni QLP 666 2.5
Gilbert Simard Other 200 0.8
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026