Riding profile

Dubuc

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Dubuc: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Dubuc, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 45% vote share, against 34% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

François Tremblay

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PCQ Challenger
    Catherine Morissette

    Catherine Morissette

    From Chicoutimi-Nord and from an entrepreneurial family, Catherine is a woman deeply rooted in the values of hard work, perseverance and closeness to people. Mother within a blended family of three children and grandmother of two grandchildren, she places great importance on family and the human bonds that unite communities.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 44.9%
  • CAQ 33.6%
  • PCQ 11.2%
  • PLQ 7.7%
  • QS 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereDubuc 44.9%33.6%11.2%7.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +14.9 20.3% +13.3 13.2% −2.0 27.2% −19.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
40.0 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François Tremblay Elected CAQ 15,427 57.6 —
Émile Simard PQ 4,699 17.6 —
Tommy Pageau PCQ 2,956 11.0 —
Andrée-Anne Brillant QS 2,833 10.6 —
Berry Zinga Nkuni PLQ 666 2.5 —
Gilbert Simard Other 200 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026