Riding profile

Duplessis

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Duplessis: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 44.7%

    Meggie Richard

  • CAQ 21.7%

    Kateri Champagne Jourdain incumbent

  • PCQ 19.7%

    Roberto Stea

  • QLP 8.6%
  • QS 4.5%

    Jani Bellefleur-Kaltush

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereDuplessis 44.7%21.7%19.7%8.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +16.8 21.3% +0.4 16.1% +3.6 23.4% −14.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Duplessis, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 45% vote share, against 22% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kateri Champagne Jourdain

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Kateri Champagne Jourdain

    Kateri Champagne Jourdain

    From the Innu community of Uashat Mak Mani-utenam on the Côte-Nord, Kateri Champagne-Jourdain is a young professional whose career is worthy of mention. Indeed, in 2019, she became the first Indigenous person to sit on the board of directors of Desjardins Movement.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Roberto Stea

    Roberto Stea

    Originally from Sept-Îles, Roberto Stea holds a bachelor’s degree in geography and land-use planning from the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi and has nearly 30 years of regional-development experience. His work with the federal and provincial governments, the Innu Nation and now Hydro-Québec has given him a strong understanding of the economic and territorial realities of the North Shore. Deeply rooted in his region, Roberto wishes to represent Duplessis residents with experience, proximity and determination. He wants to foster the North Shore’s economic development, give the regions more power and bring decisions closer to citizens so they better reflect local realities.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Meggie Richard

    Meggie Richard

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Jani Bellefleur-Kaltush

    Jani Bellefleur-Kaltush

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
20.4 pts
Turnout
53.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kateri Champagne Jourdain Elected CAQ 8,785 45.1 —
Marilou Vanier PQ 4,825 24.8 —
Roberto Stea PCQ 3,059 15.7 —
Uapukun Mestokosho QS 1,821 9.4 —
Chamroeun Khuon QLP 783 4.0 —
Jacques Gélineau Other 190 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026