Riding profile

Avalon

Federal riding — NL · Mixed · atlantic

The question

Avalon: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.5%
  • Conservative 28.5%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereAvalon 61.5%28.5%3.2%0.8%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 56.0% +5.5 31.9% −3.3 3.8% −0.6 0.8% −0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +13.5 32.1% −3.6 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Avalon, a mixed riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 100% anglophone.

Sitting member

Paul Connors

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
22.4 pts
Turnout
66.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul Connors Elected Liberal 27,563 58.6 Executive Assistant
Steve Kent Conservative 16,953 36.0 Consultant
Judy Vanta NDP 2,284 4.9 Retired
Alexander Tilley Other 230 0.5 Seafood Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 99.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46