Riding profile
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South
The question
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 59%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereElgin--St. Thomas--London South | 42.8% | 42.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −6.3 | 35.3% +7.2 | 4.8% −1.3 | 1.1% +1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −5.2 | 32.1% +10.3 | 10.6% −7.1 | 1.0% +1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 94% anglophone.
Sitting member
Andrew Lawton
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lawton Elected | Conservative | 32,565 | 50.1 | Journalist |
| David Goodwin | Liberal | 28,010 | 43.1 | Director - AGF Investments |
| Paul Pighin | NDP | 3,118 | 4.8 | Landscaper |
| Stephen Campbell | PPC | 1,256 | 1.9 | Information Technology |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.2%
- Anglophone 93.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 6.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46