Riding profile

Elgin--St. Thomas--London South

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Elgin--St. Thomas--London South: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Elgin--St. Thomas--London South, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Andrew Lawton

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
41%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.6%
  • Liberal 39.2%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • PPC 2.3%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereElgin--St. Thomas--London South 44.6%39.2%5.2%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +7.2 45.6% −6.4 6.4% −1.2 1.1% +1.2
National averageCanada 34.8% +9.8 41.9% −2.7 14.2% −9.0 1.0% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.0 pts
Turnout
68.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Lawton Elected Conservative 32,565 50.1 Journalist
David Goodwin Liberal 28,010 43.1 Director - AGF Investments
Paul Pighin NDP 3,118 4.8 Landscaper
Stephen Campbell PPC 1,256 1.9 Information Technology

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 93.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46