Riding profile

Oxford

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Oxford: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.8%
  • Liberal 38.0%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereOxford 45.8%38.0%3.4%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +10.5 49.1% −11.1 4.8% −1.4 2.0% +0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +13.7 48.0% −10.0 10.6% −7.2 2.7% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oxford, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Arpan Khanna

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.1 pts
Turnout
71.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Arpan Khanna Elected Conservative 38,191 53.4 Parliamentarian
David Hilderley Liberal 27,311 38.2 Realtor
Matthew Chambers NDP 3,046 4.3 Custodian
Jacob Watson Other 1,203 1.7 Manufacturer
Cheryle Baker Green 897 1.3 Engineer
Steven Beausoleil PPC 642 0.9 Self-Employed
Melanie Van Brugge Other 152 0.2 Consultant
Akshay Varun Raj Vardhan Independent 109 0.2 Lawyer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 95.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46