Riding profile

Kitchener--Conestoga

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Kitchener--Conestoga: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Kitchener--Conestoga, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tim Louis

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
84%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.8%
  • Conservative 41.6%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • PPC 1.6%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereKitchener--Conestoga 44.8%41.6%5.2%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −0.9 37.5% +4.1 6.4% −1.2 1.1% +0.6
National averageCanada 41.9% +2.9 34.8% +6.8 14.2% −9.0 1.0% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
0.8 pts
Turnout
73.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tim Louis Elected Liberal 30,001 48.3 Parliamentarian
Doug Treleaven Conservative 29,479 47.5 Retired Entrepreneur
Maya Bozorgzad NDP 1,821 2.9 Lawyer
Kevin Dupuis PPC 786 1.3 Property Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 83.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 16.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46