Riding profile
Kitchener--Conestoga
The question
Kitchener--Conestoga: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKitchener--Conestoga | 48.2% | 39.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −0.8 | 35.3% +4.2 | 4.8% −1.4 | 1.1% +0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +0.2 | 32.1% +7.4 | 10.6% −7.2 | 1.0% +0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kitchener--Conestoga, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tim Louis
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Louis Elected | Liberal | 30,001 | 48.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Doug Treleaven | Conservative | 29,479 | 47.5 | Retired Entrepreneur |
| Maya Bozorgzad | NDP | 1,821 | 2.9 | Lawyer |
| Kevin Dupuis | PPC | 786 | 1.3 | Property Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 83.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 16.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46