Riding profile

Kitchener Centre

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Kitchener Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Green

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
51%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 34.2%
  • Liberal 29.2%
  • Conservative 26.2%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Liberal Conservative NDP
HereKitchener Centre 34.2%29.2%26.2%3.2%
Provincial averageOntario 2.0% +32.3 49.1% −19.9 35.3% −9.0 4.8% −1.6
National averageCanada 2.7% +31.5 48.0% −18.8 32.1% −5.9 10.6% −7.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kitchener Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kelly DeRidder

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.6 pts
Turnout
68.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kelly DeRidder Elected Conservative 20,234 34.2 Mechanical Engineering Technologist
Mike Morrice Green 19,859 33.6 Parliamentarian
Brian Adeba Liberal 17,292 29.3 Policy Advisor
Heather Zaleski NDP 1,157 2.0 Constituency Assistant
Wasai Rahimi PPC 334 0.6 Executive Director of a Non-Profit Organization
Ellen Papenburg Other 111 0.2 Parliamentarian
Margaretha Dyck Other 97 0.2 Notary Public

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 84.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46