Riding profile

Kitchener Centre

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Kitchener Centre: will Conservative lose this seat to Green?

Editorial read

Kitchener Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Kelly DeRidder

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Green

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
31%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 33.9%
  • Conservative 28.3%
  • Liberal 25.7%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Conservative Liberal NDP
HereKitchener Centre 33.9%28.3%25.7%5.0%
Provincial averageOntario 1.6% +32.3 37.5% −9.1 45.6% −19.9 6.4% −1.4
National averageCanada 2.1% +31.8 34.8% −6.5 41.9% −16.2 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.6 pts
Turnout
68.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kelly DeRidder Elected Conservative 20,234 34.2 Mechanical Engineering Technologist
Mike Morrice Green 19,859 33.6 Parliamentarian
Brian Adeba Liberal 17,292 29.3 Policy Advisor
Heather Zaleski NDP 1,157 2.0 Constituency Assistant
Wasai Rahimi PPC 334 0.6 Executive Director of a Non-Profit Organization
Ellen Papenburg Other 111 0.2 Parliamentarian
Margaretha Dyck Other 97 0.2 Notary Public

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 84.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46