Kitchener Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 31%.
Compared with the average
| Green | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener Centre | 34.2% | 28.5% | 25.5% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 1.9%+32.3 | 48.3%−19.9 | 34.5%−9.0 | 5.0%−1.6 |
| National averageCanada | 2.7%+31.5 | 46.8%−18.3 | 30.4%−4.9 | 11.2%−7.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kelly DeRidder · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 0.6 points, with 68.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly DeRidder Elected | Conservative | 20,234 | 34.0 | Mechanical Engineering Technologist |
| Mike Morrice | Green | 19,859 | 33.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Brian Adeba | Liberal | 17,292 | 29.1 | Policy Advisor |
| Heather Zaleski | NDP | 1,157 | 1.9 | Constituency Assistant |
| Wasai Rahimi | PPC | 334 | 0.6 | Executive Director of a Non-Profit Organization |
| Ellen Papenburg | Other | 111 | 0.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Margaretha Dyck | Other | 97 | 0.2 | Notary Public |
| Other candidates | 393 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
- Guelph Liberal, safe seat
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated