Wellington—Halton Hills North
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington—Halton Hills North | 43.4% | 42.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.3%−4.9 | 34.5%+8.0 | 5.0%−1.8 | 1.9%+0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 46.8%−3.4 | 30.4%+12.0 | 11.2%−8.0 | 2.7%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Michael Chong · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 6.2 points, with 76.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chong Elected | Conservative | 33,736 | 50.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Sean Carscadden | Liberal | 29,609 | 44.2 | Helicopter Pilot |
| Liam Stiles | Green | 1,389 | 2.1 | Registered Kinesiologist |
| Andrew Bascombe | NDP | 1,346 | 2.0 | Skilled Labour - Low-rise Housing |
| Syl Carle | PPC | 566 | 0.8 | Property Manager |
| Other candidates | 370 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Guelph Liberal, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre Green, competitive
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington North—Milton West Liberal, safe seat
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated