Riding profile

Wellington--Halton Hills North

Federal riding — ON · Rural · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Wellington--Halton Hills North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
71%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.1%
  • Conservative 43.2%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 2.9%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereWellington--Halton Hills North 44.1%43.2%3.0%2.9%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −4.9 35.3% +8.0 4.8% −1.8 2.0% +0.9
National averageCanada 48.0% −3.9 32.1% +11.1 10.6% −7.6 2.7% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Wellington--Halton Hills North, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Michael Chong

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.2 pts
Turnout
76.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Chong Elected Conservative 33,736 50.6 Parliamentarian
Sean Carscadden Liberal 29,609 44.4 Helicopter Pilot
Liam Stiles Green 1,389 2.1 Registered Kinesiologist
Andrew Bascombe NDP 1,346 2.0 Skilled Labour - Low-rise Housing
Syl Carle PPC 566 0.8 Property Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 93.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46