Riding profile

Wellington--Halton Hills North

Federal riding — ON · Rural · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Wellington--Halton Hills North: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Wellington--Halton Hills North, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Michael Chong

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.3%
  • Liberal 40.6%
  • NDP 4.7%
  • Green 2.6%
  • PPC 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereWellington--Halton Hills North 45.3%40.6%4.7%2.6%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +7.9 45.6% −5.0 6.4% −1.6 1.6% +0.9
National averageCanada 34.8% +10.5 41.9% −1.3 14.2% −9.5 2.1% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.2 pts
Turnout
76.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Chong Elected Conservative 33,736 50.6 Parliamentarian
Sean Carscadden Liberal 29,609 44.4 Helicopter Pilot
Liam Stiles Green 1,389 2.1 Registered Kinesiologist
Andrew Bascombe NDP 1,346 2.0 Skilled Labour - Low-rise Housing
Syl Carle PPC 566 0.8 Property Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 93.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46