Riding profile

Burlington North--Milton West

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Burlington North--Milton West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Burlington North--Milton West, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adam van Koeverden

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.1%
  • Conservative 38.3%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereBurlington North--Milton West 49.1%38.3%5.0%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +3.5 37.5% +0.9 6.4% −1.4 1.1% +0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +7.2 34.8% +3.5 14.2% −9.2 1.0% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.4 pts
Turnout
73.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adam Van Koeverden Elected Liberal 37,155 52.7 Parliamentarian
Nadeem Akbar Conservative 31,172 44.3 IT Consultant
Naveed Ahmed NDP 1,507 2.1 Entrepreneur
Charles Zach PPC 607 0.9 Retired Government Lobbyist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46