Riding profile
Burlington North--Milton West
The question
Burlington North--Milton West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBurlington North--Milton West | 52.6% | 36.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +3.5 | 35.3% +1.0 | 4.8% −1.6 | 1.1% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +4.6 | 32.1% +4.1 | 10.6% −7.4 | 1.0% +0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Burlington North--Milton West, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Adam van Koeverden
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Van Koeverden Elected | Liberal | 37,155 | 52.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Nadeem Akbar | Conservative | 31,172 | 44.3 | IT Consultant |
| Naveed Ahmed | NDP | 1,507 | 2.1 | Entrepreneur |
| Charles Zach | PPC | 607 | 0.9 | Retired Government Lobbyist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46