Riding profile

Milton East--Halton Hills South

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Milton East--Halton Hills South: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Milton East--Halton Hills South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kristina Tesser Derksen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.7%
  • Conservative 42.3%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereMilton East--Halton Hills South 44.7%42.3%5.0%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −1.0 37.5% +4.9 6.4% −1.4 1.6% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +2.8 34.8% +7.5 14.2% −9.2 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
0.0 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kristina Tesser Derksen Elected Liberal 32,178 48.3 Lawyer
Parm Gill Conservative 32,157 48.2 Entrepreneur
Muhammad Riaz Sahi NDP 1,029 1.5 Lawyer
Susan Doyle Green 672 1.0 Eco-Education Executive
Walter J. Hofman PPC 475 0.7 Retired
Shahbaz Mahmood Khan Independent 174 0.3 Real Estate Broker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 84.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46