Riding profile
Milton East--Halton Hills South
The question
Milton East--Halton Hills South: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.0
- P(close race)
- 5%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMilton East--Halton Hills South | 48.2% | 40.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −0.9 | 35.3% +4.9 | 4.8% −1.6 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +0.2 | 32.1% +8.1 | 10.6% −7.4 | 2.7% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Milton East--Halton Hills South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kristina Tesser Derksen
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristina Tesser Derksen Elected | Liberal | 32,178 | 48.3 | Lawyer |
| Parm Gill | Conservative | 32,157 | 48.2 | Entrepreneur |
| Muhammad Riaz Sahi | NDP | 1,029 | 1.5 | Lawyer |
| Susan Doyle | Green | 672 | 1.0 | Eco-Education Executive |
| Walter J. Hofman | PPC | 475 | 0.7 | Retired |
| Shahbaz Mahmood Khan | Independent | 174 | 0.3 | Real Estate Broker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 84.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 15.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46