Riding profile

Brampton West

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Brampton West: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
32%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.3%
  • Conservative 41.5%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereBrampton West 47.3%41.5%3.2%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −1.8 35.3% +6.2 4.8% −1.6 2.0% −0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.7 32.1% +9.4 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brampton West, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Amarjeet Gill

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.1 pts
Turnout
64.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amarjeet Gill Elected Conservative 21,112 49.8 Real Estate Appraisal Professional
Kamal Khera Liberal 20,194 47.6 Parliamentarian
Zaigham Javed NDP 708 1.7 Small Business Owner
Sameera Khan Green 278 0.7 Student Recruitment Officer
Khawaja Amir Hassan Other 95 0.2 Accountant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 61.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 39.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46