Riding profile

Brampton--Chinguacousy Park

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Brampton--Chinguacousy Park: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Brampton--Chinguacousy Park, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Shafqat Ali

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.7
P(close race)
18%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.0%
  • Conservative 38.3%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • PPC 2.0%
  • Green 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereBrampton--Chinguacousy Park 45.0%38.3%5.1%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −0.7 37.5% +0.8 6.4% −1.3 1.1% +1.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +3.1 34.8% +3.5 14.2% −9.1 1.0% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
4.4 pts
Turnout
63.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shafqat Ali Elected Liberal 21,532 48.8 Parliamentarian
Tim Iqbal Conservative 19,591 44.4 Analytics and Performance Improvement
Teresa Yeh NDP 1,173 2.7 Teacher
Jayesh Brahmbhatt PPC 741 1.7 Real Estate Salesperson
Mike Dancy Green 521 1.2 Video Editor
Avi Dhaliwal Independent 328 0.7 Executive Officer
Hafiz Muneeb Ahmad Other 194 0.4 Civil Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 68.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 31.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46