Riding profile

Mississauga--Malton

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Mississauga--Malton: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.0%
  • Conservative 34.1%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • PPC 2.3%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereMississauga--Malton 53.0%34.1%3.3%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +3.9 35.3% −1.2 4.8% −1.5 1.1% +1.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.0 32.1% +2.0 10.6% −7.3 1.0% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga--Malton, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 34% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Iqwinder Gaheer

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
11.0 pts
Turnout
61.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Iqwinder Singh Gaheer Elected Liberal 26,793 53.3 Attorney
Jaspreet Sandhu Conservative 21,202 42.2 Payment Service Officer
Inderjeetsingh Ailsinghani NDP 1,290 2.6 Senior Business Systems Consultant
Nathan Quinlan PPC 983 2.0 Software Developer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 62.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 37.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46