Mississauga—Malton

Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Mississauga—Malton	52.3%	33.3%	3.6%	3.5%
Provincial averageOntario	48.3%+4.0	34.5%−1.2	5.0%−1.5	2.3%+1.2
National averageCanada	46.8%+5.5	30.4%+2.9	11.2%−7.6	2.7%+0.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 62.4% Other languages (French included) 37.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Iqwinder Gaheer · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 11.0 points, with 61.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.0 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Iqwinder Singh Gaheer Elected	Liberal	26,793	52.9	Attorney
Jaspreet Sandhu	Conservative	21,202	41.9	Payment Service Officer
Inderjeetsingh Ailsinghani	NDP	1,290	2.5	Senior Business Systems Consultant
Nathan Quinlan	PPC	983	1.9	Software Developer
Other candidates		390	0.8

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.