Riding profile
Etobicoke North
The question
Etobicoke North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke North | 52.6% | 32.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +3.5 | 35.3% −2.6 | 4.8% −0.7 | 2.0% −0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +4.6 | 32.1% +0.6 | 10.6% −6.5 | 2.7% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Etobicoke North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Zerucelli
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zerucelli Elected | Liberal | 22,270 | 52.6 | Lawyer |
| Natalie Weed | Conservative | 17,359 | 41.0 | Managing Broker |
| Benjamin Abis | NDP | 1,354 | 3.2 | Retired |
| Andy D'Andrea | PPC | 846 | 2.0 | Engineer |
| Sarun Balaranjan | Green | 394 | 0.9 | Resident Physician |
| Neil Simon | Independent | 132 | 0.3 | Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 64.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 35.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46