Riding profile
Etobicoke North
The question
Etobicoke North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Etobicoke North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Zerucelli
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke North | 49.3% | 34.6% | 6.1% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +3.6 | 37.5% −2.8 | 6.4% −0.3 | 1.6% −0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +7.4 | 34.8% −0.2 | 14.2% −8.1 | 2.1% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zerucelli Elected | Liberal | 22,270 | 52.6 | Lawyer |
| Natalie Weed | Conservative | 17,359 | 41.0 | Managing Broker |
| Benjamin Abis | NDP | 1,354 | 3.2 | Retired |
| Andy D'Andrea | PPC | 846 | 2.0 | Engineer |
| Sarun Balaranjan | Green | 394 | 0.9 | Resident Physician |
| Neil Simon | Independent | 132 | 0.3 | Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 64.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 35.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46