Riding profile

York South--Weston--Etobicoke

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

York South--Weston--Etobicoke: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

York South--Weston--Etobicoke, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ahmed Hussen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.1%
  • Conservative 32.4%
  • NDP 7.4%
  • Green 0.6%
  • PPC 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereYork South--Weston--Etobicoke 51.1%32.4%7.4%0.6%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +5.5 37.5% −5.1 6.4% +1.0 1.6% −1.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +9.2 34.8% −2.4 14.2% −6.8 2.1% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
15.3 pts
Turnout
57.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ahmed Hussen Elected Liberal 24,663 55.3 Parliamentarian
Nicolas Pham Conservative 17,746 39.8 Lawyer
Louise James NDP 2,190 4.9 Lawyer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 71.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 28.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46