Riding profile

York South--Weston--Etobicoke

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

York South--Weston--Etobicoke: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 55.0%
  • Conservative 30.1%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.0%
  • PPC 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereYork South--Weston--Etobicoke 55.0%30.1%5.0%1.0%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +5.9 35.3% −5.2 4.8% +0.2 2.0% −1.0
National averageCanada 48.0% +7.0 32.1% −2.0 10.6% −5.6 2.7% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

York South--Weston--Etobicoke, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 30% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ahmed Hussen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
15.3 pts
Turnout
57.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ahmed Hussen Elected Liberal 24,663 55.3 Parliamentarian
Nicolas Pham Conservative 17,746 39.8 Lawyer
Louise James NDP 2,190 4.9 Lawyer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 71.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 28.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46