Riding profile
York South--Weston--Etobicoke
The question
York South--Weston--Etobicoke: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork South--Weston--Etobicoke | 55.0% | 30.1% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +5.9 | 35.3% −5.2 | 4.8% +0.2 | 2.0% −1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +7.0 | 32.1% −2.0 | 10.6% −5.6 | 2.7% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
York South--Weston--Etobicoke, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 30% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ahmed Hussen
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmed Hussen Elected | Liberal | 24,663 | 55.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Nicolas Pham | Conservative | 17,746 | 39.8 | Lawyer |
| Louise James | NDP | 2,190 | 4.9 | Lawyer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 71.3%
- Non-francophone (other) 28.7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46