Riding profile

Etobicoke Centre

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Etobicoke Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.5%
  • Conservative 35.6%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • Green 0.8%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereEtobicoke Centre 53.5%35.6%3.9%0.8%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +4.4 35.3% +0.4 4.8% −0.9 2.0% −1.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.5 32.1% +3.5 10.6% −6.7 2.7% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Etobicoke Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yvan Baker

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
9.5 pts
Turnout
68.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yvan Baker Elected Liberal 36,186 53.6 Parliamentarian
Ted Opitz Conservative 29,713 44.0 Consultant
Ji Won Jung NDP 1,611 2.4 Designer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 76.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 23.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46