Riding profile

Etobicoke Centre

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Etobicoke Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Etobicoke Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yvan Baker

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.2%
  • Conservative 37.6%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereEtobicoke Centre 50.2%37.6%5.9%0.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +4.6 37.5% +0.1 6.4% −0.5 1.6% −1.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +8.3 34.8% +2.8 14.2% −8.3 2.1% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
9.5 pts
Turnout
68.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yvan Baker Elected Liberal 36,186 53.6 Parliamentarian
Ted Opitz Conservative 29,713 44.0 Consultant
Ji Won Jung NDP 1,611 2.4 Designer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 76.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 23.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46